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enough project development time to take full advantage of the ITC. Therefore, to provide financial stability in the industry and adequate development time to keep costs low and the supply chain efficient, we examined what the impact would be on extending the investment tax credit to a timeframe commensurate with utility-scale power. 4.3 Impact of a Production Tax Credit Another federal policy that is available to CSP is the production tax credit (PTC). This policy tool has been a major driver for wind industry growth in the United States in recent years. In WinDS, a PTC extension greatly increases the amount of wind deployment during the intervening years. However, as Fig. 10 shows, this is not the case with CSP – at least at the current federal PTC level of 1.8 cents/kWh. Because the current costs of CSP are considerably higher than wind, this PTC is inadequate to generate significant growth in excess of the Base Case in the near term. In fact, having a PTC only – and losing the permanent 10% ITC – significantly reduces the amount of CSP throughout time. If the PTC is extended to the end of the simulation period (2050), the amount of installed capacity is initially lower than the Base Case, but then higher than the Base Case after 2038. This increase is because the costs for CSP have decreased significantly through R&D and learning, such that the PTC is more valuable in those years than the ITC. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig. 10: Impact of a Production Tax Credit instead of an Investment Tax Credit 5. CONCLUSIONS • A tool has been developed to model the future capacity growth of CSP trough systems that can be used to examine various cost and policy scenarios, while more accurately accounting for transmission needs. • CSP will contribute a significant share of future U.S. electric generation in our Base Case scenario. • Increased research and development leading to further reductions in cost are vital to the eventual penetration of CSP into the electric sector. • CSP deployment is very sensitive to cost, because the resource is concentrated and relatively close to load centers. Appropriate incentives are necessary to help ensure a more sustained technology expansion. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 As shown in Fig. 9, continuing the ITC to 2017, as recommended by the Western Governors’ Association solar taskforce, will significantly increase CSP capacity through the end of the simulation period. However, as might be expected, with continued R&D-driven improvements in solar power plants and increasing fossil fuel prices, after 30 years, the amount of CSP capacity installed is less dependent on the ITC extension, and that effect starts to be damped out. Two counteracting forces lead to this result. The first, and more obvious, is that increased deployment leads to improved CSP cost/performance through learning. The second is that the best solar sites are used quickly in the ITC extension cases, leaving only lower-quality sites once the ITC has expired. However, in the Base Case, the better sites are not used until later, allowing the installations in the Base Case to start bridging the gap with those of the ITC- extension cases. These results might lead one to question the rate of growth in the CSP industry during the ITC period. These growth rates seem extreme in comparison to the current capacity. The CSDS model does contain a growth penalty such that if the growth is greater than 20% in any year from the prior year, a penalty is paid by the model to build this capacity. However, this level of capacity growth is not without precedent. The growth in the recent upsurge in natural gas- combustion turbine power plants was more extreme with the addition of 62 GW in 2002 alone, and significantly less since that year. Base Case (30% ITC to 2007, 10% thereafter) Extend 30% ITC to 2012 (10% thereafter) Extend 30% ITC to 2017 (10% thereafter) Fig. 9: Impact of Investment Tax Credit Extension Base Case (30% ITC to 2007, 10% thereafter) PTC to 2012 (18 $/MWH, no ITC) PTC to 2050 (18 $/MWH, no ITC) 6 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 CSP Capacity (GW) Capacity (GW) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050PDF Image | Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) A New Model for Estimating U.S. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Market Potential
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