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3. Results and Accomplishments The primary objective of the modeling and benchmarking activities during FY 2005 has been to continue development of the PV portions of the Solar Advisor Model, to carry out analyses to determine the overall LCOE for fielded PV systems in key reference applications using the Solar Advisor Model, and to apply projections of technology improvements to determine future-year costs and overall targets. The results of this process have served as the foundation for the Solar Program’s Multi-Year Program Plan. Within the PV Subprogram, the program management team has identified several Technology Improvement Opportunities (TIOs) within a PV system. These are: modules; inverters and balance of systems (BOS); systems engineering and integration; and deployment facilitation. By assessing the impacts of technology improvements in each TIO area and then modeling the system performance and cost in the Solar Advisor Model, trade-off studies in overall LCOE were conducted. The technology improvements were determined using a combination of expert consensus and reference to published projections. Figure 1 shows the difference between installed cost, a commonly used metric, and LCOE for a residential PV system. Because the PV industry is increasingly focused on grid-tied applications, the more important measure of system value is the cost of energy delivered during the lifetime of the system, rather than its initial cost. As Fig. 1 shows, the non-module components are a larger part of LCOE than installed cost, highlighting the market sector. All of these “baseline” system configurations use crystalline silicon modules with an efficiency of 13.5% and are located in Phoenix, Arizona. These characteristics and numbers were selected from the range of benchmark data to represent typical “best practices” installations— meaning these are neither the best nor the worst values available. Table 1. Characteristics of PV Systems in Reference Applications Util. 10 MW 150 Ground, 1-axis Horiz. 150 5.55 0.15 bO&M is listed as percent of initial capital cost per annum. Figure 2 shows the results of the TIO systems analysis for residential PV systems. Similar analyses have been performed for systems in the other reference applications, as well. Res. 4 Comm . 150 Util. Off- CPVa grid 10 1.2 MW 40 kW 100 2-axis Sled N/A 33 150 2.4 5.95 12.7 1 Sys Power (kW) Module 100 150 Power (W) Mounting Roof Roof retrofit top Tilt (°) Inverter 4 150 Power (kW) Installed 8.47 6.29 Price ($/Wdc) O&Mb (%) 0.5 0.45 18 15 aConcentrating Photovoltaics 0.85 3.6 importance of improvements. system-level technology $0.350 $0.300 $0.250 $0.200 $0.150 $0.100 $0.050 $- Fig. 1. Difference between installed and levelized cost of a residential PV system, using FY 2005 benchmark parameters. Table 1 lists some key characteristics of the reference systems that were identified for each 99 Fig. 2. Residential PV reference system total energy price ($/kWh) for current and future years. “Other costs” include design and other engineering, site preparation, permitting and interconnection, inspection, and related costs. This part of the bar graph does not change much over time because this analysis assumes increased investment in systems engineering and integration, whereas the rest of the “other” category is reduced through resultant innovations. Thus, while “other” does not decrease much as a part of the cost, it leads to decreases across the rest of the system. Photovoltaic R&D Technology Development 2005 Benchmark 2011 Target 2020 Target O&M Other Costs Installation BOS Inverter Modules Other Costs 15% In s t a l l a t i o n 20% BOS 7% In v e r t e r 11% Modules 47% Installed Cost (Total: $8.47/Wp) O&M 28% Other Costs 11% Installation 14% Modules 34% In v e r t e r 8% BOS 5% Levelized Cost (Total: $0.32/kWh)PDF Image | DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program
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