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NREL CA Solar Benefits Executive Summary A comparison of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) revealed that the LCOE of $148 per MWh for the first CSP plants installed in 2009 is competitive with the simple cycle combustion turbine at an LCOE of $168 per MWh, assuming that the temporary 30 percent Investment Tax Credit is extended. The LCOE for the CSP plant is higher than the $104 per MWh LCOE of the combined cycle combustion turbine plant.1 The economic impacts of CSP construction and operation were estimated with standard economic tools. Black & Veatch used the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) developed and maintained by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This analysis revealed that each 100 MW of CSP results in 94 permanent operations and maintenance jobs compared to 56 and 13 for combined cycle and simple cycle combustion turbine plants, respectively. In terms of economic return, for each 100 MW of installed capacity, the CSP plant was estimated to create about $628 million in impact to gross state output compared to an impact of about $64 million for the combined cycle plant and $47 million for the simple cycle plant. The higher CSP state economic impacts are due, in part, to the greater capital and operating costs of CSP plants. However, irrespective of plant cost, it should be noted that a greater percentage of each CSP investment dollar is returned to California in economic benefits. For each dollar spent on the installation of CSP plants, there is a total impact (direct plus indirect impacts) of about $1.40 to gross state output for each dollar invested compared to roughly $0.90 to $1.00 for each dollar invested in natural gas fueled generation. For plants installed in the latter stages of the deployment scenarios, CSP cost reductions become evident and the solar technology becomes a potentially competitive choice for both peaking and intermediate duty cycles. As shown in Table ES-2, CSP plants installed in 2015 are projected to exhibit a delivered LCOE of $115/MWh,2 compared with $168/MWh for the simple cycle combustion turbine and $104/MWh for combined cycle plants. At a natural gas price of about $8 per MMBtu, the LCOE of CSP and the combined cycle plants at 40 percent capacity factor are equal.3 Note that this analysis does not assume improvements to combustion turbine power generation technology, which were outside the scope of this study. However, assuming that improvements to combustion turbine power generation efficiency and cost are likely to be modest, the LCOE of CSP in 2015 is likely to be competitive with combustion turbine power generation technologies. 1 These prices use the California Market Price Referent (MPR) gas price forecast, which is equivalent to $6.40/MMBtu escalated at 2.5 percent annually. All dollars are $2005. 2 With the permanent 10 percent ITC. With the 30 percent ITC, the cost drops to $103/MWh. 3 The MPR gas forecast for 2015 is $8/MMBtu. Futures prices on NYMEX were well above $10/MMBtu for the last four months of 2005, and are down to roughly $7.50/MMBtu as of April 1, 2006. April 21, 2006 ES-2PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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