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Deployment of NREL CA Solar Benefits CSP Plants in California 4.0 Deployment of CSP Plants in California Black & Veatch developed aggressive, but reasonable, CSP deployment scenarios collaboratively with NREL to calculate the economic impact of CSP deployment (Section 5.0). By stating that the deployment scenarios are aggressive, Black & Veatch recognizes that CSP commercialization requires a long-term view that may not be supported by current economics or utility preferences. The cost of energy from the first 100 MW CSP plant may be high compared to alternative conventional (fossil fueled) or renewable energy generation options. However, CSP has the potential to be an important generation resource for California (and other southwest US states) in developing a balanced power generation portfolio. One consideration in developing scenarios is the need for new power plants. According to the State of California “Energy Action Plan,”7 dated May 8, 2003, California’s peak electric demand was 52,863 MW on July 2, 2002. According to the Action Plan, peak demand is projected to grow at 2.4 percent annually. Platts Research Service forecasts electric demand to grow from 54,320 MW in 2005 to 77,759 MW in 2020 in the “Power Outlook Quarter 1 2005.”8 Platts also estimates that nearly 10,000 MW of generation capacity will be retired over this time frame. Therefore, Platts estimated that nearly 33,000 MW of generation capacity additions will be required to meet growing demand. The estimate for growth in energy demand is from 295,000 GWh in 2005 to 422,000 GWh in 2020, or a growth of 127,000 GWh. Another consideration in developing scenarios is the California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which currently mandates that 20 percent of energy be generated by renewables by 2017. The California Energy Commission (CEC) has set an accelerated goal of 20 percent by 2010. Figure 4-1 shows the level of renewable energy generation in California through 2003 with projected requirements for 2010, 2017, and a more aggressive proposed goal of 33 percent by 2020. The RPS applies only to investor owned utilities (IOUs), such that only San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Pacific Gas & Electric are subject to the RPS. However, municipally owned utilities such as Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Sacramento Municipal Utility District are mandated by legislation to develop appropriate renewable plans that follow the spirit of the RPS. Therefore, renewable energy generation would need to increase to 34,200 GWh/y above the 2004 level of 28,300 GWh to achieve the 20 percent RPS by 2017. 7 Available from the California Energy Commission at http://www.energy.ca.gov/energy_action_plan/2003-05-08_ACTION_PLAN.PDF. 8 Platts Power Outlook service (www.platts.com). April 21, 2006 4-1PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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