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NREL CA Solar Benefits 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1983 1988 1993 Deployment of CSP Plants in California Proposa 33% by 202 l 0 2003 Tota l f or a ll US Non-H ydro RE Adopted Goal 20% by 2010 Statutory Hist or ical CA Non-Hydro G eneratio n Requirement 20% by 2017 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 Figure 4-1 California Renewable Portfolio Standard As discussed in Section 2.2, Black & Veatch has used trough plants with six hours of storage as the proxy for CSP generation expansion. The use of trough as a proxy is not intended to suggest that future CSP installations will not include significant amounts of generation using other technologies. The announcement of 20 year power purchase agreements between SES and Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric for a total of between 800 MW and 1,750 MW of dish engine power generation indicates strong commercial viability for dish systems. Each 1,000 MW of parabolic trough systems, with six-hours of storage, will generate about 3,600 GWh/yr. Thus, thousands of MW of parabolic trough could, theoretically, be installed to meet state electric demand and RPS requirements. However, utilities install or purchase renewable energy on a least cost best fit (LCBF) basis. Should selected projects have energy costs which exceed the Market Price Referent (MPR), the project owner can file for payments of the energy cost exceeding the MPR from the state’s New Renewable Facilities Program. Should funds not be available, the utility is relieved of its obligation to meet the RPS requirement. Additional information on the California MPR and its impact on CSP is provided in Section 6.1. Because there is no viable approach for calculating CSP deployment on the basis of LCBF, Black & Veatch has opted to use a scenario basis for subsequent economic impact calculations. It has been assumed that the cumulative installation of CSP plants by 2020 will be between 2,100 MW and 4,000 MW (or about 8 to 18 percent of the peak demand growth). The Low and High Scenarios are summarized in Table 4-1. The Low Scenario provides a cumulative 2,100 MW of CSP addition by 2020, somewhat below April 21, 2006 4-2PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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