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NREL CA Solar Benefits Environmental and Hedging Benefits 2%/YEAR GROWTH 1%/YEAR GROWTH US Cogeneration US Industrial US Residential/Commercial Other Canada US Power TCF 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure 7-1 Historic and Forecast Natural Gas Demand by Sector (NPC 2002) Source: American Gas Association Natural gas consumption for power generation has increased because the development of relatively low cost, high-efficiency combined cycle combustion turbine technology has made natural gas an economic alternative to oil and coal. Furthermore, gas is the cleanest burning of the fossil fuels and is favored globally for its relatively low greenhouse gas emissions when compared with other fossil fuels. Figure 7-2 shows that new electric generating capacity installed in the US for 1990-2006 was primarily natural gas fueled. Despite the large increase in natural gas fueled power generation, coal still provides about 50 percent of the electric supply for the US, followed by nuclear at about 20 percent, and natural gas fueled power stations at about 18 percent.23 7.2.2 Natural Gas Use in California California currently consumes about 10 percent of the total natural gas used in the US – about 2.36 TCF in 2004. It is estimated that in the next decade, California will add five million people to its current population of about 35 million. The added population will need power and fuel; three-quarters of California’s electricity growth and most of the state’s natural gas growth will be driven by the need to serve these new citizens. California is particularly vulnerable to natural gas price fluctuations and supply constraints because of its reliance on out-of-state sources. Currently, about 85 percent of the consumption is provided by imports. Figure 7-3 shows a breakdown of the source of natural gas for the California market. 23 For 2004, EIA April 21, 2006 7-3PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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