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NREL CA Solar Benefits Environmental and Hedging Benefits Short-term market price fluctuations, or volatility, are caused by random factors such as weather, expectations of future supply, geopolitical events, etc. The ability of the market to absorb short-term supply shocks caused by these factors is directly impacted by the relationship of supply and demand in the market. For example, a relatively small change in price would be expected if a short-term supply shock occurred and supply significantly exceeded demand. However, a relatively large price impact could be expected if supply and demand were in balance. The US is currently in the latter situation. While demand has increased, production has been relatively constant. A combination of long-term and short-term factors has led to a consistent and significant increase in natural gas prices in recent years. The average wellhead natural gas price rose from around $2 per MMBtu in the 1990s to $7.51 per MMBtu in 2004.25 The 6 year NYMEX forward curve indicates that the price at the Henry Hub will remain in the $5 to $8 per MMBtu range, while the EIA’s latest forecast26 projects that wellhead prices will average $5 MMBtu in the coming 20 years. 7.2.4 The Hedging Impact of CSP Deployment in California There are two basic benefits that the large scale deployment of CSP could provide to the California natural gas and electric markets: reduction of natural gas prices from decreased demand; and lower exposure to natural gas price fluctuations from a more diversified electric generating portfolio. This section includes a brief analysis of each of these potential impacts and a high-level estimate of the potential value of these impacts. 7.2.4.1 Impact on Natural Gas Prices. The deployment of non-fossil fueled power generation can decrease or slow the growth in demand for fossil fuels if power generated by fossil fueled plants is off-set by renewable energy generators. Several recent studies suggest that there could be a price decrease of between one and four percent for each 1 percent decline in demand.27,28 Therefore, based on a 1 percent reduction in gas price for a 1 percent reduction in nationwide gas usage, the deployment of 4,000 MW of CSP in California could result in a total reduction of approximately $60 million per year for 25 US Energy Information Administration (EIA) www.eia.doe.gov. 26 2006 Annual Energy Outlook. Released December 2005. www.eia.doe.gov. 27 Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices through Inceased Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Ryan Wiser, Mark Bolinger, Matt St. Clair., Berkley National Laboratory, LBNL-56756, January 2005. 28 Dr. Ryan Wiser, Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, testimony to Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply Diversification, March 8, 2005. April 21, 2006 7-6PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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