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NREL CA Solar Benefits Environmental and Hedging Benefits natural gas expenditures in California, assuming a natural gas price of $6.40 per MMBtu.29 If the natural gas price reduction were to be in the range of 4 percent for each 1 percent reduction in nationwide gas usage, the savings in gas cost to California could be four times higher. These savings in California are based on average savings for US consumers. However, savings per MMBtu could be higher in California than the national average. Dr. Ryan Wiser, in private communication, wrote, “Though reductions in California natural gas demand will have national price impacts that spill over to the state, the impact on California natural gas prices may be somewhat higher than the national impact if the natural gas transportation infrastructure serving California is constrained.30” 7.2.4.2 Portfolio Hedging Impact. Electricity is provided to California consumers primarily by natural gas, imported coal fueled power, and hydroelectric energy. Figure 7-5 shows the source of electricity generation in California. PNW Imports 6.33 % Renewables 10.6 % DSW Imports 12.75 % Large Hydro 14.8 % Natural Gas 41.9 % Nuclear 12.9 % Coal * 19.8 % Figure 7-5 Generation Sources for California Electricity in 2004 Source: California Energy Commission *Intermountain and Mohave coal plants are considered in-state, since they are in California control areas. 29 Taking the US gas consumption in 2004 to be 23,000 trillion Btu, and assuming a proxy of a combined cycle plant heat rate of 7,000 Btu/kWh, the amount of natural gas displaced by a 100 MW CSP plant operating at a 40 percent capacity factor is 2,400 billion Btu/yr, or 0.01 percent of the US gas consumption. Likewise, the amounts of natural gas displaced by 2,100 MW and 4,000 MW are 52,000 billion Btu/yr and 99,000 billion Btu/yr, (0.2 percent and 0.4 percent of national consumption), respectively. At 1 percent price reduction for each one percent of demand reduction, this would equate to a 0.01 percent price reduction resulting from a 100 MW plant, a 0.2 percent price reduction for a 2,100 MW CSP deployment, and a 0.4 percent price reduction for a 4,000 MW CSP deployment. 30 Dr. Ryan Wiser in an email to Dr. Larry Stoddard, Black & Veatch, December 13, 2005. April 21, 2006 7-7PDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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