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NREL CA Solar Benefits Environmental and Hedging Benefits A diversified portfolio of generation technologies and energy sources decreases the total risk of the portfolio to fluctuations in the value of any one component of the portfolio. Black & Veatch estimated the relative portfolio hedging effect of CSP to the California electric system based upon plant production cost data obtained from Platt’s and the CSP deployment scenarios developed in Section 4.0.31 The total annual production cost, that is, fuel plus non-fuel variable O&M cost, but not including capital costs, was calculated for the current California generation portfolio, the low CSP deployment and high CSP deployment scenarios. This calculation was then repeated for three natural gas price scenarios. Figure 7-7 provides the total annual production cost compared to the base case generation portfolio. As shown in Figure 7-7, the total cost increases by 32 percent for the base case portfolio and by 27 percent under the high CSP deployment scenario – a difference of 5 percentage points. Given a total annual production cost of about $12billion under the high fuel scenario, this difference equates to about $500 million annually. The benefit is somewhat smaller for the low CSP deployment scenario, but still positive. Thus, the benefit of portfolio diversification can be significant depending on the volatility of the other components of the portfolio. 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Current Generation Portfolio Low CSP Deployment High CSP Deployment 5 7 10 Natural Gas Price, $/MMBTU Figure 7-7 Effect of CSP Deployment on Statewide Generation Cost (Current Portfolio with $7.00/MMBtu gas = 100) 31 Plant production cost data by fuel type provided by Platt’s and available through the Platt’s Power Outlook Research Service at: www.platts.com. April 21, 2006 7-9 Total Annual Production Cost - Percent of Current Generation PortfolioPDF Image | Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California
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