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Gowreesunker et al. Renewable Bioresources 2014, http://www.hoajonline.com/journals/pdf/2052-6237-2-4.pdf chain and household sectors of the food chain to reduce food wastes. At the EU level however, the food waste reduction target is set at 50% by 2020, relative to a 2010 level, as set by the European Commission target [23]. The prediction per- formed in this paper assumes a constant product mix in the predictions for the post-farm gate food chain, and therefore considers the overall food wastes as opposed to specific-food product waste. Regarding farming wastes, the main driver for biogas production from cattle and pig slurries is based on population growth and the demand for farming products. It has been estimated that 90Mt of manure and slurries is currently generated annually by the farming industry [8]. The projections made in this paper are until 2050, where missing values for specific intermediate periods are linearly interpolated. Food waste targets in the food chain are currently dictated by the Courtauld Commitment, which is currently under phase 3 (2012-2015). Hence, the additional targets from 2015-2050 are extrapolated assuming a constant rate of change of successive years. Agricultural wastes are determined according to the UK population growths and relative change in consumption of meat and dairy products, predicted by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) [24]. The quantity of slurry and manure is then linearly adjusted according to the relative change from 2000, where the total amount of manure and slurry is taken to be 90Mt. The projections in food and agricultural wastes are shown in Figure 5. It should be noted that wastewater sludge generated as a by-product of processing food, such as dairy products [25], is not considered in this study. doi: 10.7243/2052-6237-2-4 energy in the produced biogas [11]. As mentioned previously, only 7% of household and 5% of supply-chain food waste are currently sent to AD; whilst approximately 0.1% of farms em- ploy AD [27]. In this regard, different scenarios will incorporate different proportion of AD system in the food chain. The different scenarios are shown in Table 1. Table 1. Scenarios with different relative adoption of AD systems for the UK food chain waste. Scenario % of food waste No. from supply-chain to AD 1 5 2 50 3 50 4 100 % of food waste from Households to AD 7 50 50 100 % of farms using manure and slurry in AD 0.1 50 100 100 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 00 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Manure and slurry Food waste Figure 5. Projected food and agricultural waste in the UK food chain. The nominal production of biogas from cattle (including sheep and poultry) and pig manure and slurry is estimated at 28.8 m3/tonnes of manure [26] based on the relative weight of carcasse produced in the UK, whilst food biogas is estimated to be at a rate of 97 m3/tonnes of food waste for the UK [15,17]. The amount of energy required by mesophilic digesters is estimated to be 0.01% and 7% of heat and electricity, respectively, relative to the amount of embedded 5 Progressive change in scenario from No.1 in 2010 to No.4 in 2050 Scenario 1 refers to the current employment of AD systems and assumes that the relative amount of wastes going to AD stays at the same current level. Scenarios 2 assumes an overall increase in the amount of waste going to AD, whilst scenario 3 provides a doubling in the amount of manure and slurry that goes to AD, relative to scenario 2. Scenario 4 provides with the ideal case scenario where all wastes generated by the supply-chain, household and farms go to AD systems to produce biogas. The progressive scenario 5 considers the linear implementation of AD systems in the food chain, from scenario 1 to scenario 4. The respective performances of the different systems depicted in section 2 are therefore evaluated according to these scenarios. Results and discussion The respective performances of the energy generation systems when employed with AD system are shown in Figures 6-9 below. The net aggregated energy is divided into electricity and heat, and accounts for the energy consumed by the AD system when operated with the energy generation system. Figures 6-9 show that the relative performances of each system for the same scenario are similar. For electricity generation, the ‘Reciprocating engine CHP with Low Grade CHP’ has the highest performance, followed by the ‘Gas Turbine CHP with High Grade ORC’; the Reciprocating Engine CHP; High Grade ORC; Gas Turbine CHP; ‘Steam Engine CHP with Low grade ORC’; and lastly the Steam Engine CHP. Regarding heat generation, the high grade ORC has the high performance, followed by the Steam Engine CHP; Reciprocating Engine CHP; and the Gas Turbine CHP with High Grade ORC. Owing to the heat-power ratio of the different CHP systems and the ORC, favouring heat production (as mentioned in section 2), 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2 4 Manure and slurry (Mt/Yr) Food waste (Mt/Yr)PDF Image | Energy generation potential of anaerobic digestion from the food and farming wastes of the UK food chain
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