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PURPOSE AND SCOPE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A review of DOE’s Renewable Energy Programs by the National Research Council in 2000 (Renewable Power Pathways: A Review of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Renewable Energy Programs, NRC-2000) recommended that DOE “should limit or halt its R&D on power-tower and power-trough technologies because further refinements to these concepts will not further their deployment.” Subsequent DOE funding requests for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology development have been sharply reduced (FY02, FY03) or zero (FY04). In 2002, DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE/EERE) conducted a Strategic Program Review that, among other things, identified a need for further technical analysis of CSP R&D. In response, DOE/EERE initiated a review process whereby an independent engineering firm would conduct a detailed analysis of CSP, which would in turn be reviewed by a second independent NRC panel. Sargent & Lundy LLC (S&L) was selected by DOE/EERE to conduct this independent “due-diligence-like” analysis of parabolic trough and power tower solar technology cost and performance. The work by S&L was done in close collaboration with the National Research Council (NRC) Committee, which was contracted by DOE/EERE to provide this second level of independent review. As detailed below, S&L’s analysis of the cost-reduction potential of CSP technology over the next 10–20 years included the following: • Examination of the current trough and tower baseline technologies that are examples of the next plants to be built, including a detailed assessment of the cost and performance basis for these plants. • Analysis of the industry projections for technology improvement and plant scale-up out to 2020, including a detailed assessment of the cost and performance projections for future trough and tower plants based on factors such as technology R&D progress, economies of scale, economies of learning resulting from increased deployment, and experience-related O&M cost reductions resulting from deployments. • Assessment of the level of cost reductions and performance improvements that, based on S&L experience, are most likely to be achieved, and a financial analysis of the cost of electricity from such future solar trough and tower plants. SARGENT & LUNDY CONCLUSIONS Based on this review, it is S&L’s opinion that CSP technology is a proven technology for energy production, there is a potential market for CSP technology, and that significant cost reductions are achievable assuming reasonable deployment of CSP technologies occurs. S&L independently projected capital and O&M costs, from which the levelized energy costs were derived, based on a conservative approach whereby the technology ES-1PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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