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Differences and Rational for the S&L Trough Technology Projection The DOE Concentrating Solar Power Program has developed detailed baseline cost and performance data for the parabolic trough technology. In addition, detailed technology R&D plans specify how these technologies are expected to change over time. DOE also has established assumed plant deployment forecasts over time. The S&L due-diligence-like approach used in this study reviewed the technology cost, performance, technology R&D, and deployment assumptions and identified the areas where the assumptions have not been fully demonstrated. The S&L review was based on discussions with SunLab, interaction with the CSP industry, input from other experts, and S&L in-house technical expertise. Relatively detailed cost and performance data are available from existing operating parabolic trough power plants. As a result, near-term estimates are relatively close between the SunLab case and the S&L case. In the longer-term (2020), the S&L projection differs from the SunLab trough cases in several key areas. A more conservative estimate of improvements in annual solar-to-electric efficiency is used, a less aggressive estimate in collector cost reductions due to lower expected deployments, and a somewhat higher O&M cost. The projected levelized energy cost of electricity in 2020 estimated by S&L is 45% higher than the SunLab case. The main differences and rational for the S&L projections are the following: • The annual solar-to-electric efficiency in the S&L case is lower than the SunLab case for the following reasons (SunLab 17.2%, S&L 15.5%) Receiver performance based on demonstrated UVAC technology. Absorption of 94.4% (SunLab 96%), envelop transmittance of 96.5% (SunLab of 97%), and emittance of 10% at 400C (SunLab 7%). Mirror reflectivity efficiency was not increased beyond the demonstrated value of 93.5% (SunLab 95%). Increase would require advanced glass or other reflective membranes. Mirror cleanliness efficiency was not increased beyond the demonstrated value of 95% (SunLab 96%). Increase would require new materials and significant enhancements in cleaning equipment and methods. • The capital cost in the S&L case is 45% higher than the SunLab case for the following reasons. (SunLab $2,221/kWe, S&L $3,220/kWe) The lower S&L solar-to-electric efficiency requires a larger solar field to compensate. The S&L case assume an 11% increase in solar field. The S&L case assumes a lower deployment 2.8 GWe by 2020 verses the SunLab deployment assumption of 4.8 GWe. As a result, less production-based learning was assumed. Cost estimates for steam turbines and balance-of-plant costs were estimated by S&L using the EPRI SOAPP model, compared to S&L’s internal cost database, and adjusted for labor and productivity rates in the southwestern states. The S&L estimates for steam turbines were less than SunLab. The S&L estimates for balance-of-plant costs were comparable to SunLab. ES-5PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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