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S&L estimated that the engineering, management, and development to be 15% of the capital cost as compared to SunLab estimate of 7.8%. • Sargent & Lundy’s estimate of the O&M costs is higher than SunLab for the following reasons: S&L scaled-up the cost of field and vehicle maintenance to account for the increase in field size Raw water cost used by S&L is based on actual cost reports at SEGS of $0.00122 per gallon ($0.32 per m3). SunLab estimated the cost to be $0.021 per m3, which is about 15 times less than the S&L estimate. Trough Technology Cost Sensitivity Variations in the inputs for levelized energy costs were calculated to illustrate the sensitivity to variations. ES-6 Sargent & Lundy Base Case for 2020 Financial Incentives Impact of Eliminating 5-year MACRS Impact of Eliminating 10% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) Replacing ITC with Production Tax Credit of 1.8¢/kWh Project Cost Increasing Cost of Equity by 1% Increasing Construction Period to 2 Years Increase in Capital Cost by 10% Increase in Annual O&M Cost by 20% Ownership Utility Ownership Municipal Utility Ownership Technology & Deployment Increased Deployment from 2.8 GWe to 4.9 GWe Advanced Technology Case Trough Technology Risk Analysis LEC $0.0621/kWh $0.0698 $0.067 $0.049 $0.0668 $0.0655 $0.0675 $0.0635 $0.0597 $0.0458 $0.0593 $0.0534 Variation 12.5% 7.8% -26.9% 7.7% 5.5% 8.8% 2.3% -3.9% -26.1% -4.7% -16.3% The major risk for parabolic trough solar plants to reach market acceptance (competitiveness) is the incentives that will allow the plant to be competitive with current non-renewable cost of generating power. Assuming incentives are provided the risk for achieving cost reduction over the next 10 – 20 years is low to average.PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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