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The capital cost estimate for the initial deployment was developed by SunLab based on actual costs for the SEGS plants, detailed cost models developed by industry, and spare part data for the SEGS plant. S&L reviewed published cost data and updated the information to include the latest cost estimate for receivers from Solel, mirrors from FlagSol, collector structure costs from EuroTrough and Duke Solar, electrical power generation system and balance-of-plant costs from the EPRI SOAPP program and S&L’s internal database, and increased contingencies. The S&L estimate is 15% higher than the SunLab estimate, which is within an acceptable range. Cost reductions are achieved from technology improvements, economy of scale, and volume production. The risk of achieving the technology improvements projected by S&L is low based on field-demonstrated technology at the SEGS plants and ongoing research by Duke Solar, Solel, FlagSol, and others. The one technology risk element left in the S&L case was the switch to molten-salt heat transfer fluid (HTF), which is key to driving down future costs. This switch adds some additional risk to the technology. A parametric case is included that assumes no thermal storage to see the impact of this technology. Economy of scale is a well-established method of estimating the cost of components of a new size or quantity from the known cost for a different size or capacity. The risk of achieving the cost improvements projected by S&L from economy of scale is low based on (a) using well-established scaling factor ratios from industry data (e.g. balance-of-plant, receivers, and electric power system) or (b) if no data are available, then using scaling factors slightly more conservative than the industry average. The risk of achieving the cost improvements from volume production projected by S&L is low based on the cost reduction experience from the SEGS plants. Key Trough Technology Conclusions A number of key technology advances will cause near-term trough plants to be a significant improvement over the SEGS units. These include: • Development of the new Solel UVAC receiver, improving collector field thermal performance by 20%. • Development of a near-term thermal storage option for troughs by Nexant and SunLab. The design is likely to be demonstrated at the first trough plant to be built in Spain. • Replacement of flex hoses with ball joint assemblies in the collector field, significantly reducing HTF pumping parasitics and increasing the potential size of future parabolic trough solar fields. The development of longer-term, more advanced thermal storage technologies is critical. This path offers the largest cost reduction potential, as follows. • Integral with advanced thermal storage is the implementation of a higher temperature heat transfer fluid in the 450°–500°C range. (SunLab and international R&D groups have significant efforts underway.) ES-7PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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