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• However, increasing trough-operating temperature to 500°C appears to have minimal impact on the eventual LEC compared to 450°C. This is contrary to earlier conclusions, necessitating a more detailed assessment in the near future. Significant cost reductions appear reachable in all three key trough components—structure, receiver, and reflectors—though brought about by different cost reduction mechanisms. • Concentrator cost reduction will depend largely on size scale-up, production volume, and increased competition. (Significant industrial efforts are currently in progress by Duke Solar & EuroTrough.) • Alternative reflector (mirror) options and production volume are projected to drop costs significantly. • Achieving an operating temperature of 450°C with current receiver technology appears feasible. However, the development of a higher performing and more reliable receiver is very important to achieve SunLab long-term cost and performance goals (labs and industry are addressing this). O&M procedures are expected to continue downward with scale-up, increasing field experience, and technology improvements in reliability. TOWER TECHNOLOGY Tower Technology Summary Because no commercial power tower plants have been built, there is more uncertainty in the cost, performance, and technical risk of this technology. Based on the data available to S&L, the analysis bounds the future potential cost of power tower plants. • Assuming the technology improvements are limited to current demonstrated or tested improvements and a deployment of 2.6 GWe of installed capacity by the year 2020, tower costs should be able to drop to approximately 5.5¢/kWh • Assuming the projected technical improvements are achieved by an active R&D program combined with incentives and deployment of 8.7 GWe, the tower costs projected by Sunlab of about 3.5¢/kWh could be achieved. ES-8PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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