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• Sargent & Lundy cost estimate for heliostats, which are about 45% of the total cost, are about 10% higher. The S&L estimate is based on our evaluation of cost estimates prepared by SunLab, AD Little, Advanced Thermal Systems, Solar Kinetics, and Winsmith. S&L used a contingency of 10% as compared to SunLab of 5%. S&L estimated deployment at about 25% of the SunLab estimate to take into consideration a realistic duration between the first and second deployment and between increases in plant size. S&L manufacturing costs are higher as a result of our evaluation • Sargent & Lundy estimated the costs for steam turbines and balance of plant costs using the EPRI SOAPP model, compared to S&L’s internal cost database and adjusted for labor and productivity rates in the southwestern states. The S&L estimate for steam turbines were less than SunLab. The S&L estimates for balance-of-plant costs were higher than SunLab. • The S&L receiver capital costs are based on a cost estimate provided by Boeing. Boeing was the supplier of the Solar Two receiver and is providing the receiver for Solar Tres. • Sargent & Lundy estimated that the engineering, management, and development to be 15% of the capital cost as compared to SunLab estimate of 7.8%. • SunLab included a risk pool contingency of 10% for Solar Tres, and S&L concurs with this value. In addition, S&L included a risk pool contingency of 5% for Solar 50. • S&L included a contingency of 12% for direct costs and 15% for cost reduction, in comparison to SunLab’s contingency of 7.8% • The efficiency projections by S&L were based on a review of the SunLab Reference Case, demonstrated efficiencies, design modifications based on lessons learned from Solar Two, and turbine generator computer model. The main differences are the following: Mirror reflectivity efficiency was not increased beyond the demonstrated value of 95%. Increase would require advanced glass or other reflective membranes. Mirror cleanliness efficiency was not increased beyond the demonstrated value of 95%. Increase would require new materials and significant enhancements in cleaning equipment and methods. Near-term efficiencies were based on the ABB-Brown Boveri heat balance for SEGS IX. The efficiency for other size units was verified by using the General Electric STGPer software program. Efficiency has a direct impact on the size of the collector field. The increase in collector field area and corresponding increase in capital cost was calculated based on the lower efficiency estimated by S&L. • S&L estimate of the O&M costs is higher than SunLab for the following reasons: S&L scaled-up the cost of field and vehicle maintenance to account for the increase in field size. S&L assumed that the average burdened rate would not decrease between Solar 100 and Solar 220. ES-10PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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