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The capital cost estimate for the initial deployment was developed by SunLab based on actual costs for Solar Two, the Central Receiver Utility Studies, the AD Little heliostat detailed cost estimate, detailed heliostat design from ATS, and industry data. S&L reviewed published cost data and updated the information to include the latest cost estimate for receivers from Boeing, electrical power generation system and balance-of-plant costs from the EPRI SOAPP program and S&L’s internal database, and increased contingencies. The S&L estimate is 15% higher than the SunLab estimate, which is within an acceptable range. Cost reductions are achieved from technology improvements, economy of scale, and volume production. The risk of achieving the technology improvements projected by S&L is low based on demonstrated technology, design enhancements from lessons learned during Solar Two, improved advances in control technology since Solar Two, and ongoing research by Boeing. Economy of scale is a well-established method of estimating the cost of components of a new size or quantity from the known cost for a different size or capacity. The risk of achieving the cost improvements projected by S&L from economy of scale is low based on (a) using well- established scaling factor ratios from industry data (e.g. balance of plant, receivers, and electric power system) or (b) if no data are available, then using scaling factors slightly more conservative than the industry average. The risk of achieving the cost improvements from volume production projected by S&L is low based on using a progress ratio of 0.97, which is at the upper end of published data. Various studies on learning curves from actual data suggest a progress ratio of 0.82 for development of photovoltaics and 0.95 for development of wind power. Key Tower Technology Conclusions Solar plant and power plant scale-up provide the largest cost reduction opportunity for power tower technologies. • Scale-up of the tower solar plant requires a total redesign and re-optimization of the field, tower, and receiver. This greatly reduces capital and O&M costs, but has only a small effect on efficiency. R&D support in the design, development, and testing of larger receivers, larger heliostats, and larger heliostat fields will reduce scale-up risk. • Scale-up of the steam turbine increases efficiency, and reduces capital and O&M costs. Probability of success here is very high, as no development is required until high-efficiency supercritical steam turbines become available (2020). Key technical advances include increasing receiver solar flux levels, development of new heliostat designs with significantly lower costs, and the use of new highly efficient steam turbines. • Increased receiver flux levels have been demonstrated at the prototype scale and require improved heliostat field flux monitoring/management systems and design optimization for use at large plants. ES-12PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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