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• Revolutionary heliostat designs with significantly lower cost have been proposed that use flexible, durable thin mirrors with a lower-weight ‘stretched-membrane’ design that can be manufactured in high volumes. Other novel designs like inflatable/rolling heliostats are also possible. • High-efficiency supercritical steam turbines are now being demonstrated that operate at temperatures compatible with current tower technology or at temperatures that require increasing the operating temperature of the tower technology to 600°–650°C. The major volume manufacturing benefit evaluated for tower technology was related to heliostats. • Heliostat cost reduction will occur when they are produced at high volume. Sargent & Lundy’s evaluation of the current heliostat design and cost indicated that cost should decrease 3% with each doubling of cumulative capacity. This would reduce the cost of a field of 148 m2 heliostats from $148/m2 to $94/m2. DISCUSSION OF NRC COMMENTS ON THE S&L DRAFT REPORT The draft report of the S&L “due-diligence-like” analysis of parabolic trough and power tower solar technology cost and performance was reviewed the National Research Council Committee. The results of the NRC review were published in “Critique of the Sargent & Lundy Assessment of Cost and Performance Forecasts for Concentrating Solar Power.” The NRC Committee recommended several methodological approaches for S&L to follow, identified areas for further investigation by S&L, and critically reviewed the S&L findings. Much of the NRC critique of the S&L analysis centered around assumed rates of deployment and incentive issues. Deployment and incentive issues were outside the scope of work for S&L. As noted by the NRC: “The committee notes that CSP technology is not unique in the requirement for incentivizing the early market phases of emerging energy technologies” (NRC, page 11). “The committee notes the extensive reports and study literature on these issues cited by S&L, including DOE/EERE’s own August 2002 Report to Congress on the Feasibility of 1,000 Megawatts of Solar Power in the Southwest by 2006...” (NRC, page 11). DOE noted in their presentations to the NRC and S&L that because such studies were available, DOE’s primary concern, and the reason for this study, was to determine the potential technical feasibility of CSP. Nevertheless, there are several deployment issues worth considering. First, the “chicken-and-egg” (NRC, page 15) problem of driving down costs by deploying technologies, but facing high initial costs that impede deployment, is true of all energy technologies, not just CSP. Second, as noted by the NRC and S&L, incentives are a key determinant of the rate at which CSP, or any new energy technology, penetrates the market. Evaluating this lies well outside the technical analysis requested of S&L. Third, the level of deployment identified by S&L is modest, at about 2.8 GW by 2020. The NRC also noted that “The SunLab deployment scenarios evaluated by S&L represent a range from a modest rate of adding one 100 MWe plant per year (the first becoming operational in 2004) to an aggressive approach that would result in almost 5,000 MWe of new capacity by 2020” (NRC, page 5). To place this in context, the wind industry added 1,700 MW of new capacity in the U.S. in 2001 alone. ES-13PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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