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The main NRC findings that support the S&L study are the following: 1. The NRC committee believed that a plausible estimate of levelized energy cost would lie somewhere between S&L’s and Sunlab’s projections in 2020. • “Based on the level of uncertainty that is inherently present in projecting these deployment rates and technology advances, a more plausible estimate would lie somewhere between the two projections (S&L’s and SunLab’s) in 2020. However, if deployment does not proceed at the assumed rate, the projected LEC could be much higher than either of these estimates.” (NRC page 6) 2. The NRC committee agreed with S&L on a number of its technical findings. • “Since 1999, significant progress has been made in understanding the potential impacts of thermal storage technologies, thin film glass mirrors, improved heat collection units, improved trough support structures, and other technical opportunities to improve CSP technology.” (NRC Page 4) • “The committee agrees with S&L’s identification of key technology components for increasing the performance of trough systems to lower costs.” (NRC, page 6) • The committee has a high confidence in the estimate for power block cost reductions that will result in increasing plant sizes. (NRC, pages 7 and 8) • “The committee believes that S&L did a reasonable job of assessing the improvements in annual tower efficiency of power plant progression....” (NRC, page 7) • “It is anticipated that industry R&D will deliver the technical advances appropriate for receivers.” (NRC, page 9) • “S&L appears to have done a reasonable job of assessing the design and capital cost potential for systems based on a near-term (or demonstrated) technologies.” (NRC, page 8) • The NRC committee agreed with S&L’s methods and review of the O&M costs. (NRC, page 5 and 9) 3. The NRC committee agreed with S&L that policy-based incentives are needed for initial introduction of technologies and that both R&D and deployment of technology are necessary. 4. The committee agreed that S&L’s selection of the base case economic parameters are reasonable, but did not ‘sufficiently examine the effect of uncertainties (NRC, page 5). S&L concurs with the NRC and has included expanded sensitivity analysis in the final report. 5. The NRC committee found that S&L was not biased and provided a creditable process within the constraints of time and the information available. Furthermore, the NRC committee stated that S&L did reasonable job assimilating information within time and resource constraints. • “...that S&L took any potential conflict of interest very seriously and made a concerted effort to address and avoid it. No obvious example of bias was apparent in S&L’s interpretation of the ES-14PDF Image | Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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