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Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

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Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts ( executive-summary-assessment-parabolic-trough-and-power-towe )

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available data nor was there any deliverate omission of pertinent facts. If anything, the S&L analysis was more conservative than SunLab’s estimates in assessing areas like time to develop new materials or power conversion technologies.” (NRC, page 18) • “...that S&L attempted to maintain a credible process by filling in the gaps in its knowledge base with the advice of world-recognized experts.” (NRC, page 18) The main NRC committee recommendations to S&L are the following: 1. The NRC committee asked for a risk assessment. The S&L final report has been modified to include a risk assessment section per NRC recommendations. 2. The NRC committee asked for additional sensitivity analysis. The S&L final report has been modified to include an expanded sensitivity analysis per NRC recommendations. 3. The NRC committee asked for clarification of the differences and rational for the S&L cost estimate. The S&L final report has been modified to include a comparison summary of the differences in the executive summary. 4. The NRC committee would have preferred a bottoms-up cost analysis. This study was never intended to provide a bottoms-up cost assessment. Unfortunately time and budgets did not allow for this type of cost analysis. Instead, a typical financial review was conducted to assess the validity of the existing data. A considerable portion of the NRC’s critique was focused on the S&L scope of work, not results of our review as documented in the report. Sargent & Lundy had a defined scope of work for this project, which was clearly identified in our contract. Most of the areas identified by the NRC as a critique to the S&L Report are in fact critiques of the defined work scope. The most significant areas identified by the NRC, which were not in our scope of work, are the following: • The type or value of incentives needed to reach market acceptance. Our report clearly identifies that this was not part of the work scope and is one of the most significant market entry barriers to overcome. • The S&L projection of deployment is ‘not creditable’. The scope of work did not include a market analysis, which would be required to provide a deployment projection. One of the key drivers for deployment is overcoming market entry barriers, in particular incentives. As previously mentioned, incentives are needed, but the political climate and assessment of whether or when incentives would become available require significant review not considered within our scope. • Power generation market. The S&L draft report issued September 2002 included a discussion of power generation markets, including geography, access to established power grids, environmental restrictions or incentives, and taxes. Subsequently, due to a tight schedule and because such work had already been done elsewhere, the DOE directed that the scope of work not include an evaluation of the power generation market and associated issues. ES-15

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