LONDONS ZERO CARBON ENERGY RESOURCE Secondary Heat

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LONDONS ZERO CARBON ENERGY RESOURCE Secondary Heat ( londons-zero-carbon-energy-resource-secondary-heat )

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Demand Matching To be utilised, secondary heat supply must be matched to heat demand both in terms of temperature and location. Where there is more supply than demand in an area, there must be heat network infrastructure in place to transport the excess supply to a suitable area of demand. The extent to which secondary sources of heat may be utilised depends both on the proximity of the source to centres of demand and on the nature of that demand. Thus, if heat were supplied at a temperature of 70°C, some end uses such as cooking could never be met. Similarly, buildings with differing fabric efficiencies (equivalent to different energy ratings in the residential sector) can make differing use of lower temperature heat with those with poor thermal efficiency being able to utilise less than those with higher thermal efficiency fabric. In practice, it would also be necessary to have a means to transport the heat in the form of heat networks from source to centre of demand. This study assumes that these networks would already be in place from pre-existing district heating networks fed from gas, CHP and energy from waste plants as it is considered that secondary heat sources are unlikely in themselves to be able to support the investment in heat networks. It is estimated that 24,900 GWh/yr of London’s heating demand (as of 20108) could make use of secondary heat supplied at 70°C, without applying spatial constraints. This is equivalent to 38% of London’s heat demand in 2010 and is far less than the quantity of delivered secondary heat available (71,300 GWh/yr). Applying spatial constraints limiting heat supply from sources to the surrounding boroughs with a notional 5km maximum network length reduces this heat uptake to 23,200 GWh/yr. Looking to the future, if buildings are made more energy efficient and as demand and supply patterns change, spatial constraints are likely to have a greater impact. Thus, for a 2050 ‘ambitious’9 scenario where the future building stock could support 51,300 GWh/yr of heat from 70°C heat networks, much of this new demand would be remote from supply sources. For this scenario, 30,300 GWh/yr could be met by secondary sources of heat. Previous research suggests that between 12,000 and 16,000 GWh/yr of heat can be provided by decentralised energy networks by 2031 including heat from conventional fuel sources.10 By looking at a wider spectrum of secondary heat sources, this study demonstrates that this supply has the potential to be exceeded by secondary heat sources alone. In the event that the viability of primary heating fuels in district networks is significantly reduced, the secondary heat sources identified could provide sufficient heat to replace them in full. 8 2010 has been taken as the scenario year for ‘current’ supply and demand rather than 2013 as this is the most recent year for which heating demand data for London could be obtained 9 An ambitious scenario assumes policy is in place across all levels of government to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. DECC high projections (DECC (2012) Updated Energy & Emissions Projections, Annex F) have been used for energy prices, heat demand growth assumes ambitious efficiency uptake and a maximum heat network penetration of 80%. 10 GLA (2011) Decentralised Energy Capacity Study: http://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/environment/tackling-climate-change/energy-supply 13

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