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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY potential policy options to ensure a reliable supply of 99Mo/99mTc produced without HEU, consistent with the time frames and policies of the HLG-MR.2 The market impact study To increase the understanding of the economic and supply chain impacts of converting to using LEU targets for 99Mo production, the NEA examined the impact on individual facilities to develop an assessment of the impacts on the whole supply chain. A capacity model and an economic model of the supply chain were developed and used to assess the impact of conversion on global supply availability and costs, in comparison to a reference case. Information for the assessment came from an expert working group (made up of major supply chain participants), which met for two workshops. This information was supplemented by interviews with individual supply chain participants by the NEA, and NEA’s own knowledge of the supply chain. Capacity modelling The capacity modelling started with 99Mo capacity and production reference data on all current and potential irradiators and processors (as of June 2012) and then applied the experienced and expected impacts of LEU-target conversion on various elements affecting capacity. The model is time and facility specific, thus the degree of the impact can vary from facility to facility. This recognises that facilities can be affected differently depending on their particular situation. The NEA modelled three different impact scenarios on an “all-in” situation, as well as two different “challenges” situations. The three impact scenarios applied high, low and very low impacts to the reference data of the three situations. Under the high (or low) impact scenario the NEA applied the highest (or lowest) expected facility-specific impact on production capacity. The very low impact scenario assumes that the economic returns from 99Mo irradiation services improves significantly such that reactors, where possible, displace other irradiations in order to return 99Mo irradiation capacity to pre-conversion levels. 8 2. 3. These impact scenarios were then applied to the three “situations”: • “All-in” situation: shows the expected impact from LEU-target conversion on all the current and potential irradiators and processors, according to the facility- specific time schedules of operation, conversion (if applicable) and shutdown. Some current and potential irradiators and processors are already using, or will start operations using, non-HEU based methods and therefore they will not experience “conversion” impacts. • Economic-challenges situation: starts from the “all-in” situation and then assumes that the unsustainable economic situation continues,3 such that only projects that could be constructed and operate without commercial funding proceed. This means, for example, that expected projects in the Netherlands, South Africa and the United States, among others, do not proceed. For the economic-challenges situation, the high and low impact scenarios were applied. • Technology-challenges situation: starts from the “all-in” situation and then assumes that new technologies and new entrants face a higher risk in implementing their For more information on the HLG-MR policy approach for a long-term secure 99Mo supply, refer to OECD/NEA (2011a). For more information on the economics of the supply chain, refer to OECD/NEA (2011a and 2010). MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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