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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production

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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production ( market-impacts-converting-low-enriched-uranium-targets-medic )

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY various projects. In this situation it is assumed that there is only one US project that proceeds, that Russian and Korean production are delayed, and that production from some expected projects does not occur. For this technology- challenges situation, the three impact scenarios (high, low and very low) were applied. The capacity impact elements that were applied using the three scenarios on the three situations affected the capacity and production at the irradiators and processors (see Figure E1). The capacity and production scenarios were then compared to expected demand to determine if the impacts of LEU-target conversion affected 99Mo supply reliability. To account for the need for outage reserve capacity4 (ORC), three different demand forecast situations were evaluated: one with no ORC requirements; one with low requirement for meeting ORC levels; and one with high requirements for meeting ORC levels. Figure E1. Capacity model from impacts to outcomes Expected or experienced facility- specific impacts from LEU-target conversion Current supply with a high impact Current supply with a low impact Current supply with a very low impact Technology-limited potential supply with a high impact Technology-limited potential supply with a low impact Technology-limited potential supply with a very low impact High impact Low impact Very low impact Current fleet All-in situation Technology-challenges situation Economic-challenges situation Potential supply with a high impact Potential supply with a low impact Potential supply with a very low impact Economically-limited potential supply with a high impact Economically-limited potential supply with a low impact Modelled situations Modelled outcomes from LEU-target conversion 4. Outage reserve capacity is required to ensure a reliable supply chain by providing back-up irradiation and/or processing capacity that can be called upon in the event of an unexpected shutdown [see OECD/NEA (2011a) for more information]. A reduction in ORC increases the risk of supply shortages, particularly during any unplanned outage situation. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 9

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