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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It was agreed by the expert working group that there were no incremental capacity impacts on generator manufacturers or further downstream. However, it was recognised that generator manufacturers face logistical challenges during the conversion process from keeping production of generators from HEU- and LEU-based 99Mo separate until they receive health approvals. For the reactors, the most important capacity element was the reduction of 99Mo production as a result of lower uranium-235 (235U) content in the targets.5 The expected impacts range from no reduction in irradiation capacity up to a reduction of 50%, depending on the facility. In addition, there is a corresponding reduction in available outage reserve capacity. It is also expected that one irradiator will require one year downtime in order to convert to using LEU targets. As noted, these impacts were applied on a facility-specific basis to the reference data for the various impact scenarios to determine the impacts. For the processors, the key incremental impact was the changed processing procedure, which requires a longer time in most cases; the lower 235U content was an effect at the reactor stage that flowed through to the processors. The changed processing procedure results in the reduction of produced bulk 99Mo from increased decay, among other impacts. The expected reductions range from no impact up to 60%, depending on the processing facility. Outage reserve capacity will be affected at the processing stage during the conversion period since processors will generally operate both HEU- and LEU- based 99Mo processing lines until consumer uptake allows for a switch to 100% LEU-based production. However, once production is completely from LEU targets, processing outage reserve capacity should be fully available. Results: capacity impacts Applying the range of expected facility- and time-specific impacts to the reference data illustrates the likely available global capacity and production of 99Mo irradiators and processors. For both current irradiation capacity and processing production, conversion to using LEU targets does not create new long-term supply shortages; the shortages shown are already expected given the final shutdown of a number of the existing facilities over the next decade. However, LEU conversion does intensify the shortages by reducing available capacity. Under the “all-in” and technology-challenges situations, supply is sufficient over the time period to 2030 for both irradiator capacity and processor production. LEU-target conversion does reduce effective capacity and production, but not to levels that are of concern (i.e. below expected demand). However, there are two periods (2014 and 2017) where processor production under the technology-challenges situation is tight compared to demand with a high ORC requirement. Of significant concern, though, are the results of the impact scenarios on the economic-challenges situation. For both irradiation capacity and processing production, supply is not sufficient to meet demand in the long term under the economic-challenges situation (see Figure E2). Under this scenario, LEU-target conversion accelerates the expected long-term shortages, creating a significant shortfall in 2017 resulting from one 10 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 5. It should be noted that the capacity study only examined the impacts of converting using “phase 1” targetry – targets that are market or near-market ready. These targets have a higher density of 235U, but are not high-density targets in the sense of “phase II” targetry (which would include such advanced target types as high-density foil targets). It may take a number of years before phase II targets are commercially viable and available. It was deemed by the expert working group that the decision to convert to phase II targetry would be a business decision based on whether the expected benefits of the added production would outweigh the expected costs of converting to using the advanced high-density targets.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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