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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY irradiator that indicated that they need to be shut down to undertake conversion. After 2018 and until 2025, LEU-target conversion keeps supply below the high-demand curve; by 2027 all the scenarios (including the reference case) drop below the lowest demand curve. Figure E2. Current and select new entrants processing production of 99Mo vs. demand under the economic-challenges situation 1 000 000 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 Total processing production: reference case economic-challenges Total processing production: low impact economic-challenges Total processing production: high impact economic-challenges NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) The capacity impact modelling shows that, while LEU-target conversion does reduce available capacity and production, the main concern remains the unsustainable economic condition facing the supply chain.6 In terms of capacity impacts, if the economic situation in the supply chain were to improve sufficiently to support adequate investment, LEU-target conversion should not create insecurities in 99Mo supply. Cost modelling The cost modelling, as with the capacity modelling, started with a reference case for each currently operating 99Mo irradiation or processing facility, as well as two new entrants: the FRM-II and Russian reactors. As the point was to determine the impact on costs from LEU conversion, other new entrants were not modelled as they are planned to be non-HEU production facilities. The facility-specific reference cases were developed with data provided by supply chain participants during the NEA economic study (OECD/NEA, 2010) and updated during this study. Where direct information was not provided, the NEA made assumptions about costs based on the results of the economic study. Using this data, the reference cases 6. See OECD/NEA (2011a and 2010) for more information on the unsustainable economic situation in the upstream supply chain. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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