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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 were developed using the levelised unit cost of 99Mo (LUCM) methodology used in the economic study. The NEA modelled the impacts by applying the high and low expected cost impact values to the reference case for the specific facility, based on the specific timelines of that facility for operation, conversion and shutdown. The high and low expected values were coupled to the related capacity scenarios to undertake the LUCM modelling (which takes into account changes in production). In general, high infrastructure cost values were applied to the low capacity impact scenario, as high upfront investment should minimise the capacity impact from conversion. Once the LUCM modelling for the various scenarios was undertaken for each facility, the top, bottom and median impact values were applied to the median of the reference cases. This provided a range to demonstrate the differences that exist in the supply chain, without publicly identifying the impacts on a specific facility. For the processor facility-specific LUCM modelling, the irradiators’ LUCMs from the various scenarios were used as an input cost (i.e. the cost of providing irradiation services) for the relevant processor scenario. The range of processors’ LUCM changes was then applied down the supply chain to determine the resulting changes at each stage. As in the economic study, this assumes a 100% cost flow through down the supply chain, and allows for the clear assessment of the impacts of LEU-target conversion cost changes through the supply chain and on the end payer. As with the capacity modelling, the expert working group determined that the main incremental cost impacts would be at the irradiator and processor stages of the supply chain. The cost impacts started at the uranium and target supply stages, which were modelled as processing cost increases as processors are, in general, responsible for paying for targets. In this first stage, it was recognised that there would be an impact on the final cost of targets and on the research, development and qualification for these LEU targets. For irradiators, the incremental cost impacts were related to the necessary infrastructure changes in the reactor. It was identified that either new irradiation rigs would be needed or they would have to be modified (to handle the different geometry of the new LEU targets), depending on the facility and the processor requirements. Cost impacts from reduced production (including required downtime) were calculated via the LUCM calculations, and other identified costs impacts (such as regulatory approvals) were included in processor conversion project costs as irradiators indicated that they would pass the costs on to processors. Processors face a number of incremental cost impacts, including costs from: modifying or developing new containers for transporting irradiated LEU targets (which also includes regulatory approval costs for the containers); infrastructure changes required to process changed targets and to increase waste storage; operating impacts; and supporting generator manufacturers in obtaining health regulatory approvals. Costs for these various cost impact elements vary across facilities and sometimes within the facilities themselves (in terms of high and low expected or experienced impacts). Results: cost impacts Applying the range of expected facility- and time-specific cost impacts of the various impact elements to the facility reference case gives the expected results of the cost of converting to LEU targets for 99Mo production. It should be noted that the reference case that is used for comparison is based on full-cost recovery of operations; original capital costs are assumed to be fully amortised at the reactors and processing facilities that are converting, and thus are not included.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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