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Chapter 2. Capacity impacts of LEU-target conversion 2.1. Framework and methodology of capacity modelling The capacity model is intended to provide a reasonable description of the capacity, product flows and availability of 99Mo/99mTc in the global supply chain. This model establishes a reference case that is then used to undertake a time-based assessment of the impacts of conversion on the quantities of 99Mo that can be supplied during and after conversion. The time-based reference case includes the start and stop dates and production levels from both current and expected new irradiators and processors. Additional data on the reference data are presented in Section 2.2. The model examines capacity from uranium supply all the way through to the global market for 99Mo/99mTc (see Figure 2.1). The model replicates the flow of product through the supply chain, for example connecting irradiators with the relevant processors. Individual supply chain participants are included in the model to allow for an assessment of different impacts at different facilities and the impact that could have on downstream players and the overall global market. Figure 2.1. Capacity model framework CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Russian Federation United States CERCA Target manufacturing CNEA OSIRIS OPAL SAFARI NRU Irradiators HFR LVR-15 MARIA New Irradiators CNEA IRE NTP NORDION ANSTO Uranium supply BR-2 RA-3 Processors Global market COVIDIEN New Processors The model starts with reference data for current and all potential new entrants to set a baseline from which the supply impacts of converting to LEU targets are measured. From there, the facility- and time-specific expected impacts of LEU-target conversion were applied to the reference data to assess the supply impacts on the global market. Figure 2.2 provides an illustrative example of the process, where potential impacts at each segment of the supply chain are assessed and the expected impact would then flow through the supply chain. (In the figure, solid lines represent no expected change from target conversion and dotted lines represent an expected change.) Impacts at each stage of the supply chain were modelled to be incremental to avoid potential double-counting. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 19PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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