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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION For example, a lower 235U content in the targets impacted reactor capacity and that effect flowed through to processors as lower delivered product, but was not reapplied at the processor stage. Figure 2.2. Example of assessing capacity impacts from LEU-target conversion Availability of LEU Uranium supplier Production impacts Capacity to irradiate additional/new targets and impact on ORC Processor 1 Uranium supply Target manufacturing Irradiators Processors Global market Capacity to develop LEU targets Target manufacturer Reactor 1 Reactor 2 Production impacts Processor 2 20 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 In order to determine the impacts, the expert working group first analysed all the potential places in the supply chain where there could be an impact on capacity or production from LEU-target conversion – called “capacity impact elements”. From a list of all potential impact elements, the working group determined which were: • important (i.e.those elements where LEU-target conversion is known to, or expected to, have an impact on 99Mo/99mTc capacity or production); • important but not likely (i.e. there would very likely be no impact, but if an impact were to occur it could have a large effect); and • not relevant (i.e. there would be no impact from LEU-target conversion on the element). Annex 2 provides a full list of the first two categories of impact elements; the “not relevant” elements are not presented as it is an extensive list that was deemed not important. The NEA modelling accounted for the important impact elements but did not model the non-relevant impact elements or the important but not likely impact elements. Some of the latter elements will be discussed in this document, but were not modelled as it was not expected that the impact would occur. However, it is important to be aware of the risk related to these elements. The expert working group then assessed the important impact elements to set a value for the degree of the expected or experienced impact for each element, for each facility. Given that the model is time and facility specific, the degree of the impact can vary from facility to facility; in some cases a range of the expected impact for a specific element was provided for a specific facility. This resulted in the development of three impact scenarios: • • High impact scenario: the highest expected facility-specific impact on production capacity was applied to each relevant facility. Low impact scenario: the lowest expected facility-specific impact on production capacity was applied to each relevant facility, given normal operating and economic conditions.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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