Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production

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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production ( market-impacts-converting-low-enriched-uranium-targets-medic )

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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION • Very low impact scenario: assumes that the economic returns from 99Mo irradiation services improves significantly such that reactors, where possible, displace other irradiations in order to return 99Mo irradiation capacity to pre- conversion levels. The NEA applied the expected impacts under these three scenarios to the following three situations (see Figure 2.3): • all-in situation; • economic-challenges situation; • technology-challenges situation. Figure 2.3. Capacity model from impacts to outcomes Expected or experienced facility- specific impacts from LEU-target conversion Current supply with a high impact Current supply with a low impact Current supply with a very low impact Technology-limited potential supply with a high impact Technology-limited potential supply with a low impact Technology-limited potential supply with a very low impact High impact Low impact Very low impact Current fleet All-in situation Technology-challenges situation Economic-challenges situation Potential supply with a high impact Potential supply with a low impact Potential supply with a very low impact Economically-limited potential supply with a high impact Economically-limited potential supply with a low impact Modelled situations Modelled outcomes from LEU-target conversion For the economic-challenges situation, the modelling starts from the all-in situation and then assumes that economic conditions in the supply chain do not improve from the current unsustainable economic situation that is described in previous NEA reports (OECD/NEA, 2011a and 2010). Applying this assumption, this situation includes only those projects that can proceed in the absence of commercial funding (both irradiators and processing projects). Additional detail on the actual projects included in the economic- challenges situation is provided in Section 2.3. The NEA applied the high and low impact scenarios to the economic-challenges situation but not the very low impact scenario as that scenario assumes that the economic situation improves substantially, which is inconsistent with the economic-challenges situation. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 21

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