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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION The technology-challenges situation also starts from the all-in situation and then assumes that new technologies and new entrants face a higher risk in implementing their various projects. Under this situation, many of the potential projects do not proceed or are delayed as a result of technology reasons. Additional detail on the actual projects included in the technology-challenges situation is also provided in Section 2.3. The NEA applied the three impact scenarios discussed above to the technology-challenges situation. Using the three scenarios and the three situations, the modelling applied the capacity impact elements to the irradiators and processors out to 2030. Given that the model is based on product flow through the supply chain, infrastructure limitations were taken into account; for example, if a processor had more capacity than the production from its irradiator suppliers, not all the processing capacity would be used. Along the same line, if there were processing limitations where a processor’s irradiators could supply in excess of the processor’s capacity, the processor’s capacity would define the actual production of 99Mo. The results were then compared to expected demand to determine if the capacity impacts of LEU-target conversion affected security of 99Mo/99mTc supply. The demand curves are based on a previous NEA study assessing long-term demand for 99Mo/99mTc (OECD/NEA, 2011b), updated to reflect the adjustments observed in the market, resulting in a lower current demand. The previous study had current demand at 12 000 6-day curies per week,1 which has been revised to approximately 10 000 6-day curies per week. In addition, the demand curves used in this study seek to reflect the need for outage reserve capacity (ORC). Outage reserve capacity is required to ensure a reliable supply chain by providing back-up irradiation and/or processing capacity that can be called upon in the event of an unexpected shutdown (see OECD/NEA, 2011a for more information). The study treats ORC as effectively increasing demand for irradiation and processor capacity, as this capacity is demanded to be “set-aside” in order to ensure security of supply. As a result, there are three demand curves used: • future demand scenario with no ORC requirements; • future demand scenario with low requirements to meet ORC levels; • future demand scenario with high requirements to meet ORC levels;2 Under these three demand scenarios, 2012 demand in 6-day curies per week is, respectively: 10 000, 11 700 and 13 300. 2.2. Reference capacity data The reference data for capacity used in this study, presented below, are the capacity of current and potential new entrants providing 99Mo/99mTc irradiation and/or processing services. The general guideline for the inclusion of a current or potential producer was that they supply to the global market or are important for large regional markets. This means that, in general, those facilities included in the study were major producers with capacities of greater than 1 000 6-day curies a week (EOP). New entrants were included if 22 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 1. 2. A 6-day curie is the measurement of the remaining radioactivity of 99Mo 6-days after it leaves the processing facility (end of processing, or EOP). The high ORC requirements demand scenario is based on a derived model that shows that a supply chain with somewhat effective, but not necessarily ideal co-ordination with a large reactor in the fleet could maintain necessary ORC levels if each irradiator kept, on average, an additional 33% of their capacity as ORC when they operate; this translates into an annual “peak” capacity of about 200% of demand. The low ORC requirements demand scenario requires the same level of reliability but is derived from a supply chain with more perfect co-ordination and more equal sized reactors. With this type of supply chain, ORC levels could be maintained if each irradiator kept an additional 17% of its capacity as ORC when operating. More information on ORC levels will be available in a forthcoming guidance document on ORC being developed by the NEA.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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