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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION 2.3. Economic- and technology-challenges situations As noted in Section 2.1, the NEA modelled two “challenges” situations to recognise the fact that the all-in situation overestimates the future expected capacity as not all of the planned projects will proceed. Many of the projects may not proceed as a result of the current economic situation in the 99Mo supply chain, because of technological or regulatory challenges that hinder the development of the project or because of the increased competition that would result if all the projects were to enter the market. As a result, the NEA modelled an economic-challenges and a technology-challenges situation. Both of these were described in Section 2.1 and were developed in consultation with the expert working group. Additional detail on the actual projects included is provided here. For the economic-challenges situation, only the following irradiation sources and related processing facilities are included: current reactors;3 FRM-II; INR; RIAR; KOREA; CARR; BMR; and RA-10. All the other potential projects identified in Section 2.2 are assumed to not proceed under the economic-challenges situation. For the technology-challenges situation, there is only one US project assumed to proceed, the Russian project is delayed until 2018, the Korean project is delayed until 2020, and the MYRRHA and the INR projects are assumed to not proceed. It must be clarified that these challenges situations should not be construed as a prediction, forecast or expectation on the part of the NEA of which projects proceed and which do not. The situations were created to be illustrative of possible outcomes if economic or technical challenges were encountered. Through the use of the scenarios developed with the expert working group, the NEA is not expressing a viewpoint as to the viability of any particular project. 2.4. Capacity impact elements As noted above, the expert working group examined the full supply chain and determined the key points along the supply chain where the conversion to using LEU targets could have an impact. The working group divided all the points, or capacity impact elements, into those that were important, important but not likely, or not relevant. The full collection of the first two categories of capacity impact elements is provided in Annex 2. This section of the report will discuss the various important impact elements and the degree of the impacts, where possible. Where the provision of data on the degree of impact of a specific capacity impact element could reveal commercially confidential information these data will not be provided in this report. As noted earlier, many supply chain participants provided confidential information to the NEA in order to facilitate the development of this study with the understanding that the NEA would respect the confidential nature of that information. The expert working group agreed that the key incremental capacity impact elements affected irradiators and processors. They determined that there were no incremental capacity impact elements on generator manufacturers or further downstream. However, it was recognised that generator manufacturers face logistical challenges during the conversion process as they have to keep production of generators from HEU- and LEU- based 99Mo separate until they receive health approvals. 26 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 3. While all current reactors continue to operate under this situation, it is possible that some may have to stop production at some point in the future if the economic situation does not improve since they receive no or limited government funding. This possibility is not modelled in the scenarios.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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