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Capacity impact elements affecting uranium and LEU-target supply A key impact element for this stage of the supply chain was the availability of HEU during the period until LEU-target conversion is completed. The expert group recognised that this was a very important element – if HEU was not available for 99Mo production during the conversion period then there could be serious implications for security of supply. However, recent assurances indicate that HEU will be made available during the conversion process, based on agreed upon timelines.4 An additional important impact element identified for the target supply stage of the supply chain was the ability of the supply chain to produce and supply LEU targets in quantities sufficient to meet global demand during and after conversion. The expert working group identified this as a concern as there are currently only two producers of LEU targets for the global market: AREVA-CERCA in France and CNEA in Argentina. If there are only a few suppliers, it increases the risk of supply interruptions from unforeseen circumstances. However, AREVA-CERCA indicated that they have sufficient capacity to be able to increase supplies of LEU targets to support the global market, but need firm commitments. With the assurances provided for these two identified elements, there appears to be no specific impacts regarding uranium and LEU-target supply from converting to using LEU targets. However, the supply chain should remain vigilant to ensure that HEU and LEU targets can be supplied in the quantities necessary for a secure supply of 99Mo/99mTc during and after LEU-target conversion. Capacity impact elements affecting irradiation services The most important impact element affecting irradiation services comes from the lower 235U content in the LEU targets. The lower content is not linear – moving from 93% 235U to just under 20% in the target does not mean a directly proportional reduction of absolute 235U in the target. Using current targetry, processors are able to increase the overall density of uranium in the target. NTP in South Africa converted from targets with 45% 235U but they were able to increase the density of the uranium in the target to counteract some of the reduction. Other processors do not have direct experience in conversion but their current work on conversion indicates that they also expect to be able to counteract to some degree the lower 235U content. The expected impact on the provision of irradiation services from the lower 235U content ranges from a 0% to 50% reduction in production. The case of no impact comes from irradiators that have indicated that they have significant available space in their reactor to be able to irradiate additional targets without impacting their normal operations. In addition, under the very low impact scenario, all irradiators with additional space are assumed to be able to increase irradiation services. For modelling this capacity impact element on LEU-target converting reactors, the reference data (as presented in Section 2.2) were used up to and including the year of conversion. From the year after conversion, the reference data were adjusted to reflect the expected impact, based on the relevant impact scenario (high, low or very low). For all new entrants, except the RIAR project, the reference data were used as the new projects are expected to start with non-HEU-based irradiation services. These impacts were applied on a facility-specific basis to the reference data, based on the timing indicated for each individual facility. 4. Such as through the Belgium-France-Netherlands-United States Joint Statement: Minimization of HEU and the Reliable Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (26 March 2012), that can be found at: www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/26/belgium-france-netherlands-united-states- joint-statement-minimization-he. CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 27PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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