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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION 28 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 One irradiator indicated that a one-year shutdown period was necessary in order to convert to using LEU targets; all other research reactors indicated that target conversion was possible during normal maintenance periods and therefore no extra shutdown periods were necessary. The one year shutdown for the one facility was modelled. Another capacity impact element that was identified as important was the impact on outage reserve capacity. Given that the LEU-target conversion will have an impact of reducing effective capacity, there will be less capacity available to be offered as ORC. The comparison of the supply scenarios and the demand scenarios later in this document will demonstrate this effect of reduced available ORC. A related issue is the ongoing discussion on, and consideration of, moving to harmonised target design in Europe. It has been pointed out that this could have the effect of increasing flexibility in the operations of the regional network by increasing compatibility between processors and the various available irradiators. Such flexibility could help to minimise effects of reduced capacity by increasing irradiation options for processors. This issue is being discussed by the European Observatory on the Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. Capacity impact elements affecting the distribution between irradiators and processors, and processors and generator manufacturers The expert advisory group indicated that distribution changes between reactors and processors were possible if there was not sufficient supply from the suppliers in the current distribution channels. In addition, it was possible that there would be distribution changes between processors and generator manufacturers. However, the group also indicated that choices of distribution were much more complex and that changes could come from a number of factors, not just from impacts of LEU-target conversion. In addition, they indicated that they did not currently expect any significant distribution changes as a result of LEU-target conversion. As a result, there was no modelling done to account for changes to regional distribution. Capacity impact elements affecting processors As indicated above, the capacity impact elements affecting producers were to account for incremental affects at the processing stage of the supply chain. The impacts from lower 235U content in the targets were accounted for at the irradiator stage and the impacts were passed down to processors via the model, based on less product – there was no incremental impact from the lower content modelled at the processor stage. Processors potentially still face an incremental reduction in production capacity as a result of the LEU-target conversion and the need, in some cases, to alter their processing procedures as they adjust their targets. The main incremental capacity impact element is the additional time required to extract and purify the 99Mo from the irradiated LEU target. This additional time results in lower production from decay impacts on the available 99Mo. In some cases, the additional time needed has an impact on transportation possibilities from the processing facility. For example, given the additional time, flights may not be available for the bulk 99Mo until a number of hours after production completion – resulting in yet more decay of the available 99Mo. However, this is likely to be optimised with experience. This capacity impact element results in incremental production reductions from the processors in the range from 0% up to 60%. The case of a 0% reduction comes where a processor does not need to change their processing procedure since they are using very similar targets to their HEU targets (albeit with increased uranium density and less 235U). For modelling this capacity impact element on the converting processors, the reference data (as presented in Section 2.2) were used up to and including the year of conversion. From the year after conversion, the reference data were adjusted to reflectPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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