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the expected impact, based on the relevant impact scenario (high, low or very low). For those processors that are either already using LEU targets or new entrants that will be based on non-HEU methods, the reference data were used. While NTP has already converted, they are currently producing 99Mo based on both HEU and LEU targets as some of their customers have not yet received health approval to use the LEU-based 99Mo/99mTc; as a result, the model includes a ramp-up period for full LEU-based production from NTP. The impacts were applied on a facility-specific basis to the reference data, based on the timing indicated for each individual facility. As with irradiators, the outage reserve capacity available within processors is expected to be reduced during the conversion period: processors use their second “back- up” line during the conversion process to keep their HEU- and LEU-based production separate. However, once conversion is completed, it is expected that the processors will be able to return to their normal operations and have their second line as back-up capacity. Time will be required to adjust and increase their waste management capacity, but it should not affect their ability to supply bulk 99Mo to the market. An additional important capacity impact element that was identified by the expert working group was the time required for the various regulatory approvals associated with conversion. This includes the regulatory approvals to operate based on LEU targets and the related operational conditions, as well as the time needed to obtain health regulatory approvals. The main impact of the required time is that it reduces the operational flexibility of the processor – they cannot operate HEU and LEU lines at the same time and until they have health regulatory approval for their LEU production in all their customers’ jurisdictions they will have to continue to operate both lines separately. However, processors have indicated that this will not have any direct impacts on their stated capacity. Given that there is no direct impact on capacity (but it is an important logistical issue), the modelling did not adjust for this impact element. 2.5. Capacity impacts from converting to LEU targets Results for irradiation capacity The modelling applied the range of expected facility- and time-specific impacts outlined in the previous section to the reference data for the current fleet of irradiators to determine the impact of LEU-target conversion. Figure 2.4 shows the results of the capacity modelling on current irradiators, comparing the reference case (of no LEU-target conversion) to the very low, low and high impact scenarios described in Section 2.1. These supply scenarios are then compared to demand, with various ORC requirements (again, described in Section 2.1). Current irradiators Under all scenarios (including the reference case), the expected exit of the NRU and OSIRIS reactors from the 99Mo supply chain in 2016 and 2018 will drastically reduce the available irradiator capacity from the current fleet. In addition, the expected conversion to LEU targets in 2015 at most of the existing irradiators will reduce available capacity from the current fleet. During the period from 2017 to 2022, all of the scenarios, including the reference case, show that the available production from the current irradiator fleet is insufficient to meet demand and outage reserve capacity needs. During that same time period, LEU-target conversion has the impact of intensifying the supply concern, with the high impact scenario from current irradiators being lower than even the demand with no ORC requirements. By 2023, all the scenarios are very similar for the current irradiator fleet, demonstrating that long-term demand is greater than long-term supply from the current irradiator fleet regardless of the LEU-target conversion. Thus, LEU-target conversion does not create the expected long-term shortfalls, but it could intensify them and make the shortfalls arrive earlier. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 29 CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSIONPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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