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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION “all-in” situation, LEU-target conversion under all the impact scenarios has a supply that is more than 300% of demand in the long term. LEU conversion does lower the capacity in the period from 2016 to 2022, but never to a point close to or below demand. However, as has been noted earlier, this all-in situation includes all potential projects that have been publicly announced without any validation or assessment on the likelihood of these projects actually being successful. As with all infrastructure development not all of the projects that are planned will proceed. Many of the projects may not proceed as a result of the current economic situation in the 99Mo supply chain, because of technological or regulatory challenges that hinder the development of the project, or because of the increased competition that would result if all the projects were to enter the market. Challenges situations Recognising this reality, Figures 2.6 and 2.7 present two challenges situations: the technology-challenges situation and the economic-challenges situation. Both of these situations were discussed in Sections 2.1 and 2.3. The technology-challenges situation shows that LEU-target conversion does have an impact by reducing available irradiation capacity; however, again, never to a point close to or below the future demand scenarios. Figure 2.6. Current and select new irradiation capacity vs. demand: impact scenarios under a technology-challenges situation 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 Total irradiators: reference case technology-challenges Total irradiators: low impact technology-challenges NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC) Total irradiators: very low impact technology-challenges Total irradiators: high impact technology-challenges NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) Under the economic-challenges situation, LEU-target conversion creates possible shortages in 2018 where the impacts from conversion are high and only when compared to the demand curve coupled with high ORC requirements. Under this same situation, LEU-target conversion accelerates the long-term shortages expected under the reference case scenario around 2023 up to 2026. Long-term supply is less than demand for all scenarios, including the reference case scenario. This last figure shows that LEU-conversion impacts are a secondary concern to the unsustainable economic situation in the 99Mo/99mTc supply chain. Although LEU-target conversion may accelerate the timing of the expected long-term shortages by a few years, the MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 31 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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