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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION main concern is the long-term shortages. This points to the need to change the current economic situation. If the market could become more economically sound by following the HLG-MR policy approach (OECD/NEA, 2011a), LEU-target conversion does not appear to create any significant concern for irradiator capacity in relation to expected demand. Figure 2.7. Current and select new irradiation capacity vs. demand: impact scenarios under an economic-challenges situation 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 Total irradiators: reference case economic-challenges Total irradiators: high impact economic-challenges NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) Total irradiators: low impact economic-challenges NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC) 32 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 Results for processing production While irradiation capacity is essential for 99Mo production, the future supply and demand scenarios for processor production are more indicative of potential supply, as they recognise the necessary coupling of irradiation and processing infrastructure; where one is available without the other, the potential capacity cannot be used. This was the case in the 2009-2010 shortages, when processing capacity in Canada could not be used as the NRU reactor in Canada was shut down, and at the same time available irradiator capacity in Europe could not be completely used as there was not sufficient processing capacity to offset the production losses in Canada. While not shown here, processing capacity is sufficient to meet the future demand scenario – if the location of irradiators is ignored. Under all the scenarios, the global processing capacity exceeds future demand. However, processing production accounts for the necessary coupling of irradiator facilities with processing capacity. Current processors Figure 2.8 shows the results of the modelling on processor production from the current fleet, accounting for irradiator and/or processing capacity limitations and assuming all new irradiator entrants, but no new processing capacity. Again, this figure shows that LEU-target conversion is not the factor that creates the long-term shortage expected; that shortage is caused by insufficient irradiator and related processing capacity from the current fleet. LEU-target conversion intensifies the long-term shortages, but does not create them. Again, this demonstrates that the major concern related to long-term 99Mo/99mTc supply security is not principally related to LEU-target conversion but rather is related to the underlying economic problems in the supply chain that hinder new infrastructure investment. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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