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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Figure 2.8. Current processing production vs. demand: impact scenarios 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 Current processing production: reference case Current processing production: low impact NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) Current processing production: very low impact Current processing production: high impact NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) Current and potential new entrant processors Figure2.9 presents the LEU-target conversion impacts on the potential future situation where all the potential new irradiators and processors enter the market. As in the irradiator all-in situation, this figure demonstrates that while LEU-target conversion has an impact on processor production, the supply of bulk 99Mo even under the high impact conversion scenario is approximately 250% of demand. However, this situation includes all potential projects which have been publicly announced without any validation or assessment of the likelihood of these projects actually being successful. As noted earlier, not all of the planned projects are actually expected to proceed given economic, technological and/or regulatory challenges. Figure 2.9. Current and all new potential processing production vs. demand: impact scenarios 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 Total processing production: reference case Total processing production: low impact NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) Total processing production: very low impact Total processing production: high impact NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 33 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOP Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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