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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Challenges situations To recognise the impact of this reality on the potential projects, Figures 2.10 and 2.11 show processing production under two challenges situations: a technology-challenges situation and an economic-challenges situation. Both of these situations were discussed in Sections2.1 and 2.3. Under the technology-challenges situation, the LEU-target conversion has the limited effect of creating two tight periods in 2014 and 2017, when compared to the demand curve with high ORC requirements. While LEU-target conversion does lower the production from the reference case, supply is above demand and therefore presents no concerns for security of supply. Figure2.11 presents the impacts of LEU-target conversion under an economic- challenges situation. The figure shows that LEU-target conversion accelerates the expected long-term shortages, by creating a significant shortfall in 2017 under all the LEU-target conversion impact scenarios; the reference case for 2017 drops below the demand curve with high ORC requirements but does remain above the two other demand scenarios. This drop in 2017 is a result of one irradiator indicating that they will have to be shut down to undertake the conversion process. Figure 2.10. Current and select new processing production vs. demand: impact scenarios under a technology-challenges situation 1 200 000 1 100 000 1 000 000 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 Total processing production: reference case technology-challenges Total processing production: very low impact technology-challenges Total processing production: low impact technology-challenges Total processing production: high impact technology-challenges NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) 34 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 From 2018 to 2025, the LEU-target conversion impacts keep supply under the economic-challenges situation below the high demand curve (with high ORC requirements), but the high and low impact scenarios are both above the lowest demand curve and the low impact scenario is above the demand curve with low ORC requirements. By 2027, all the scenarios under the economic-challenges situation drop below the lowest demand curve, again demonstrating that the long-term shortages are expected regardless of the conversion to LEU targets. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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