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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Figure 2.11. Current and select new processing production vs. demand: impact scenarios under an economic-challenges situation 1 000 000 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 Total processing production: reference case economic-challenges Total processing production: low impact economic-challenges Total processing production: high impact economic-challenges NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) These figures show that LEU-target conversion does have an impact on overall 99Mo production but that this impact is only problematic under the economic-challenges situation. This provides support to the statement earlier in this document that LEU-target conversion is a secondary concern for long-term supply security – the primary concern is the current unsustainable economic situation that needs to be corrected to ensure sufficient incentives to develop new infrastructure. 2.6. Comment on high-density targets The assessment undertaken through this study and detailed in this report is focused on the impact of LEU-target conversion using commercial- or near-commercial-ready target designs. This is often called “phase I targetry” and consists of adjusting the currently available targetry to increase uranium density. However, there is also work underway to develop new advanced high-density targets, often called “phase II targetry”. Much work has already been done to develop these targets and the work is ongoing. It would be interesting to undertake a similar assessment of capacity (and cost) impacts based on using phase II targetry; however, such targets are currently not market ready and there are indications that these types of targets may not be ready for commercial use in the next seven years or so. As a result, any attempts to model capacity and cost impacts would be highly speculative given the outstanding uncertainties related to target design, dissolution methodologies, infrastructure needs and related cost impacts. Given the uncertainty, the NEA and its HLG-MR agreed that modelling would not be done using an assumption of advanced targetry. However, it was recognised that MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 35 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Annual six-day curies EOPPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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