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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production

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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production ( market-impacts-converting-low-enriched-uranium-targets-medic )

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CHAPTER 2. CAPACITY IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION 36 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 advanced targetry could theoretically have the effect of counteracting all capacity effects of LEU-target conversion, at least returning capacity to the reference levels presented in Section 2.2. The related costs are currently too uncertain to even speculate as to the expected outcomes. Once more detail is known about the advanced targetry, individual companies will be able to decide whether the advantages of moving to advanced targets will be greater than the expected costs. 2.7. Conclusions regarding the expected capacity impacts from LEU-target conversion From the modelling undertaken to assess the capacity impacts from converting to LEU targets, it is clear that while there is a reduction of effective irradiation capacity and processor production from the conversion, this impact is a secondary concern to the economic situation already identified and discussed by the HLG-MR (OECD/NEA, 2011a and 2010). LEU target conversion does not create the expected long-term supply shortfalls. However, these long-term shortfalls could start earlier as a result of LEU-target conversion under the economic-challenges situation, when compared to the high ORC requirements demand curve. There are shortages expected in 2017 as a result of LEU- target conversion, coupled with the shutdown of the NRU reactor, under the economic- challenges situation. From the modelling, LEU-target conversion only creates supply shortages under the economic-challenges situation. Under all the other situations, LEU-target conversion does lower the expected production from the reference case scenario, but not to levels where security of supply is threatened. As a result, LEU-target conversion should not create supply concerns if the economics of the 99Mo/99mTc supply chain were to improve. The HLG- MR policy approach (OECD/NEA, 2011a) discusses how the supply chain economics could be improved to ensure long-term supply security.

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