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CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Figure 3.1. Example of assessing cost impacts from LEU-target conversion HEU reference scenario: LUCM LEU impact scenario: LUCM Difference between HEU and LEU/kg Difference between making HEU/LEU targets Additional infrastructure: rigs Less 99Mo but same costs Uranium supply Target manufacturing Reactors Processors EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR % or EUR/USD change Absolute or range Regulatory health approvals Generator manufacturers No incremental cost changes Radiopharmacies/hospitals No incremental cost changes Patient and final payer EUR EUR 38 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 Through the expert working group and interviews with supply chain participants, the NEA determined the degree of the relevant cost impacts for specific facilities. In many instances, the expected impacts were provided to the NEA as a range for a specific facility, representing high and low expected values for the cost impact. Where information was not provided by a specific facility representative, the NEA was required to make certain assumptions on the degree of the impact based on other participants’ expectations or experience and NEA’s own knowledge of the supply chain. The NEA modelled the impacts by applying the high and low expected values to the reference case for the specific facility, based on the specific timelines of that facility for operation, conversion and shutdown. The high and low expected values were coupled to the related capacity scenarios to undertake the LUCM modelling (which accounts for changes in production). In general, high infrastructure cost values were applied to the low capacity impact scenario, as high upfront investments should minimise the capacity impact from conversion. The scenarios will be explained in the next section. Once the LUCM modelling for the various scenarios was undertaken for each irradiation facility, the resulting top, bottom and median impact values were applied to the median reference case to obtain an “input price” of irradiation services for processors. This provided a range to demonstrate the differences that exist in the supply chain, without publicly identifying the impacts on a specific facility. For the processor facility-specific LUCM modelling, the irradiators’ LUCMs from the various scenarios were used as an input cost (i.e. the cost of providing irradiation services) for the relevant processor scenario. In addition, the ranges of various processor facility- specific cost impacts were applied to the relevant processor. Again, the LUCM modelling accounts for reduced production and the resulting cost impacts on a per unit basis. The range of processors’ LUCM changes were then applied down the supply chain to determine the resulting changes at each stage. As in the economic study, this assumes a 100% cost flow through down the supply chain, and allows for the clear assessment of the impacts of LEU-target conversion cost changes through the supply chain and on the end payer.PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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