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3.2. Economic modelling scenarios The next section will discuss the cost impact elements and the expected or experienced degree of impact for those various elements. For the purposes of discussing the scenarios used to model the economic impacts, it is important to bring one point forward – the expert working group agreed that the key incremental cost impact elements were those that affected the irradiators and processors. This means that economic modelling scenarios were developed only for irradiators and processors. The reference case used for both irradiators and processors assumes that no target conversion occurs. As a result, there are no conversion capacity or cost impacts applied. In addition, to accurately reflect the current supply chain, the reference case assumes that capital costs are fully amortised and that operational costs are fully recovered. For both irradiators and processors, the operating costs used were those reported to the NEA for the economic study; where data were not reported, the 20% multipurpose reactor scenario was applied for the irradiator facility and the processor cost scenario was applied for processors (refer to OECD/NEA, 2010 for more information). The 99Mo production used to develop the reference case LUCM is based on the reference case in the capacity model except where there are weekly processing limitations; in that case the available processing capacity was used. For irradiators, two cost scenarios were developed: a high infrastructure impact scenario and a low infrastructure impact scenario. The high infrastructure impact scenario includes high conversion costs for the irradiator, such as the costs related to the development of new irradiation rigs to accommodate a new geometry for the irradiation target. It also assumes low capacity impacts. The logic is that if irradiators make additional investments, they should be able to reduce the capacity impacts. Irradiators indicated that operating costs do not change significantly from using LEU targets and therefore, are modelled not to change from the reference case. The low infrastructure scenario for irradiators includes low conversion costs for the irradiator, such as applying costs for modifying irradiation rigs instead of developing new rigs. However, this was assumed to result in high capacity impacts; spending less would result in less flexibility to minimise the capacity impacts of LEU-target conversion. Again, operating costs were unchanged from the reference case. For processors, two cost scenarios were also developed along the same logic as for the irradiators. The only addition is that under the processor high infrastructure impact scenario, the costs of irradiation services are assumed to be high and under the processor low infrastructure impact scenario the irradiation service costs are assumed to be the low irradiator LUCM value. Under the reference case and cost scenarios, production and costs are assumed to continue until the shutdown date of the facility or 2030, whichever is first, as in the capacity study. 3.3. Cost impact elements As noted above, the expert working group examined the full supply chain and determined the key points along the supply chain where the LEU-target conversion would have an impact on the costs of production (either through capital or production costs). The working group divided all these cost impact elements into those that were important, important but not likely or not important. The full collection of the first two categories of cost impact elements is provided in Annex 3. This section will discuss the various important cost impact elements and the degree of the impact, where possible. Similarly to the note in the section on capacity impact elements, where the provision of data on the degree of impact of a specific cost impact MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 39 CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSIONPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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