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CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION 3.4. Cost impacts from converting to LEU targets The LUCM modelling was undertaken to provide a sense of the direction and magnitude of the expected price changes that would take place as a result of LEU-target conversion. Applying the range of expected facility- and time-specific cost impacts of the various impact elements to the facility-specific reference cases gives the expected results of the cost of converting to LEU targets for 99Mo production. It should be reiterated that the reference case that is used for comparison is based on full-cost recovery of operations; original capital costs are assumed to be fully amortised at the reactors and processing facilities that are converting and thus are not included. A non-full-cost recovery reference case is also shown to allow comparison between the impact from moving to full-cost recovery and the additional costs impacts from LEU-target conversion. While absolute values will be presented in this section, the reader must be aware that the values are meant to be illustrative and should not be construed as representing the absolute true value seen, or expected to be seen, in the market. The important lessons from the modelling results are the direction and degree of the price changes expected from LEU-target conversion through the supply, including the final impact on the patient. Price increases resulting from LEU-target conversion The first results from the LUCM modelling to discuss in this report are related to the expected impact on costs through the supply chain, from irradiators down to the radiopharmacy or nuclear medicine department. Table 3.3 presents the absolute values derived from the modelling of cost impacts. As noted above, the table includes two reference cases: without and with full-cost recovery being applied. These two cases are consistent with the values presented in the NEA economic study (OECD/NEA, 2010), with the latter aligned with the results for a situation with full-cost recovery for operations, but no capital for either the irradiator or the processor. Table 3.3. Costs in the supply chain including the impact from LEU-target conversion in EUR LUCM (EUR/6-day Ci)1 from: Impact scenario Reference case without FCR2 Reference case with FCR2 High infrastructure Low infrastructure Full range Irradiator Processor Generator manufacturer Radiopharmacy/nuclear medicine department 1 810 1 825 1 894 1 911 1 845-1 967 45 315 375 60 330 390 68 400 457 74 418 474 60-80 353-474 409-530 44 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 1. Values rounded and medians presented for all except “full range”. Values are meant to be illustrative of the situation and should not be construed as being the absolute true value in the market. 2. As noted in Section 3.1, the reference case is the economic situation where no LEU-target conversion occurs. FCR = full-cost recovery. Table 3.4 shows the percentage increase in costs expected from the modelling results. The percentage increase for the “reference case with full-cost recovery” is the increase from moving to full-cost recovery only (thus the increase from the “reference case without full-cost recovery”). All the other percentage increases presented in the table show the expected cost increase compared to the “reference case with full-cost recovery”, thus isolating the cost impacts of the LEU-target conversion. These two tables demonstrate that LEU-based 99Mo from a converted facility is more expensive than HEU-based 99Mo from the same or a similar facility. While this is not surprising, the values also show that the final cost impact from moving to LEU targetsPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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