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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production

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Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production ( market-impacts-converting-low-enriched-uranium-targets-medic )

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CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION from the radiopharmacy stage is less than 8%. The cost impacts upstream are higher however, reaching a cost increase of about 43% under the worst case situation for processors. The impact of these cost increase on the end payer will be discussed in the next section. Table 3.4. Percentage increase in costs resulting from LEU-target conversion Impact scenario Reference case without FCR Reference case with FCR High infrastructure Low infrastructure Full range % increase as a result of LEU-target conversion1 (% increase from reference case with FCR) Irradiator 32.8%2 16%3 26.8%3 3.6-36.8%3 Processor -- 4.5%2 20.7%3 26%3 6.3-42.8%3 Generator manufacturer -- 3.9%2 17.7%3 22.2%3 5.4-36.6%3 Radiopharmacy/nuclear medicine department -- 0.8%2 3.8%3 4.7%3 1.1-7.8%3 -- 1. Medians presented for all except “full range”. Values are meant to be illustrative of the situation and should not be construed as being the absolute true value in the market. 2. Percentage increase from reference case without FCR, thus increase necessary to move to FCR for operating costs. 3. Percentage increase from reference case with FCR, isolating the effects of the LEU-target conversion. An interesting result from the modelling presented in Tables 3.3 and 3.4 is that the cost impact under the high infrastructure impact scenario is actually less than the cost impact under the low infrastructure impact scenario. This may seem counterintuitive since the high infrastructure impact scenario includes higher infrastructure costs for the irradiator and the processor. However, as discussed in Section 3.2, an additional element of the scenario is that the high upfront infrastructure spending results in lower capacity impacts. This means that there is greater 99Mo production under the high infrastructure scenario, which allows the high costs to be spread out over more product, and results in an overall lower LUCM. Thus it appears beneficial for an individual facility to invest in optimal infrastructure during conversion in order to realise long-term savings from lower operating costs and higher production. Another interesting comparison is between the expected LUCM from a converted facility and the expected LUCM from new infrastructure. The previous NEA economic study presented the expected impacts from moving to full-cost recovery for various infrastructure scenarios. Table 3.5 presents the expected cost increase from the reference case without full-cost recovery scenario, duplicated from the economic study (Table 5.5, p. 83, of OECD/NEA, 2010). The values demonstrate that the impacts from moving to full- cost recovery under almost all capital replacement scenarios are expected to be larger than the impacts of LEU-target conversion. This means that LEU-based 99Mo from a converted facility (with full-cost recovery) may be less expensive than 99Mo from a new facility with full-cost recovery, depending on the infrastructure scenario. The values presented in Table 3.5 do not include the costs of converting to using LEU targets. It was indicated by the expert working group that in general new infrastructure should not face important cost differences from target conversion if it was still in very early stages of design. In this case, the irradiator and/or processor would be able to include the necessary adjustments in the design without imposing significant costs on the overall project. However, where a new project is already well advanced there will likely be a cost impact on a curie of 99Mo produced since the project may not be able to alter its design significantly (e.g. to make more irradiation space available). This means that the new project would produce less 99Mo with LEU targets compared to its originally planned quantity from HEU targets. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 45

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