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CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Table 3.5. Expected costs in the supply chain from moving to full-cost recovery, from 2010 NEA economic study Impact scenario FDIR with no processing MP 50% with no processing MP 20% with processing MP 20% – no capital + processing Irradiator Processor Generator manufacturer Radiopharmacy/nuclear medicine department 2 165 2 120 2 095 2 005 LUCM (EUR/6-day Ci)1 as a result of moving to full-cost recovery, from: Reference case without FCR 45 315 375 1 810 400 670 730 355 625 685 145 600 660 55 510 570 MP 20% with no processing 145 415 475 1 910 FDIR with processing 400 855 915 2 350 MP 50% with processing 355 810 870 2 305 MP 50% – no capital + processing 140 595 650 2 090 1. Values are meant to be illustrative of the situation and should not be construed as being the absolute true value in the market. To model the expected impacts from such a situation, the NEA started with the same assumptions for the new infrastructure as used in the economic study and applied an expected reduction of capacity of 20% to account for the lower quantity of 235U in the targets. This value is consistent with the range of “low impacts” used earlier in the study. Table 3.6 provides the results of this modelling for two scenarios: • a multipurpose reactor where 20% of its operations are for 99Mo production; • a multipurpose reactor where 50% of its operations are for 99Mo production. For both of these situations, the assumptions used (to be consistent with the economic study) were: the payback period for the new infrastructure was 20 years; the original planned production was 2 500 6-day curies per week; the reactor is planned to operate 37 weeks in a year. Based on the results presented in Table 3.6, a new multipurpose reactor where 20% of its operations are for 99Mo production, with the assumptions outlined above, could require a cost increase of about 20% to account for the reduced production. We would expect this impact to be lower for projects that are earlier on in the planning stage since they may be able to adjust their project design. Table 3.6. Expected costs of target conversion for fully-cost recovered new infrastructure, based on 2010 NEA economic study Impact scenario LUCM (EUR/6-day Ci)1 as a result of target conversion, from the irradiator Percentage increase from FCR scenario with no conversion, from irradiators 20% 24% MP 20% with no processing 175 MP 50% with no processing 440 46 MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 1. Values are meant to be illustrative of the situation and should not be construed as being the absolute true value in the market. Overall, these results support the need to move the market to full-cost recovery for irradiators (under the assumption that processors and down the supply chain are already implementing full-cost recovery as they are commercial operations). LEU-based 99Mo will likely be more expensive than HEU-based 99Mo from the same or a similar facility, and even more expensive than subsidised HEU-based 99Mo. If the irradiation of targets forPDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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