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CHAPTER 3. COST IMPACTS OF LEU-TARGET CONVERSION Need for policy action to encourage LEU conversion because of cost impacts The previous sections demonstrated that LEU-based 99Mo is expected to be more expensive than HEU-based 99Mo, especially compared to subsidised HEU-based 99Mo. In addition there would be cost impacts throughout the supply chain, but the expected impact on the end user would be very small. Current experience in the supply chain seems to indicate that end payers have difficulty supporting these small changes in end user prices. However, the support is necessary to ensure that the supply chain will have sufficient resources (and motivation) to convert to producing 99Mo from LEU targets. Figure 3.2 shows a possible future of 99Mo production, comparing non-HEU-based production to HEU-based production under a technology-challenges situation. The point to this figure is to show that in the next few years HEU-based 99Mo production should be sufficient to meet global demand. Since HEU-based 99Mo is expected to be less expensive than non-HEU-based production (such as that from LEU-target converted facilities), it may be difficult for non-HEU-based producers to sell their product. This difficulty could result in delaying decisions to convert to using LEU targets or to develop other non-HEU production sources. Given these results, and the issues raised in the previous section, there may be a need for governments to encourage non-HEU-based 99Mo/99mTc production and consumer uptake, always respecting the HLG-MR policy approach to ensure long-term supply security. Figure 3.2. Non-HEU- vs. HEU-based 99Mo production: high infrastructure impact scenario and technology-challenges situation 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 HEU production - high infrastructure impact scenario non-HEU production - high infrastructure impact scenario NEA demand scenario (high ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (low ORC requirements) NEA demand scenario (no ORC requirements) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 The NEA has developed a discussion paper that provides various options for governments to consider for encouraging non-HEU-based production and consumer uptake (OECD/NEA, 2012a). Broadly speaking, the policy options examined and described in the document have one of three roles: making the option of purchasing or producing non-HEU-based 99Mo and/or 99mTc more attractive; making the option of purchasing or producing HEU-based 99Mo and/or 99mTc less attractive; or limiting access to HEU-based 99Mo/99mTc. MARKET IMPACTS OF CONVERTING TO LOW-ENRICHED URANIUM TARGETS FOR MEDICAL ISOTOPE PRODUCTION, ISBN 978-92-64-99197-2, © OECD 2012 49PDF Image | Market Impacts of Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical Isotope Production
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