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F 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 Pulverized Coa Advanced Combined Cycle Advanced Gas Turbine Energy Capacity 0 Base Interm. Base Interm. Base Interm. Fuel Variable O&M Fixed O&M Capital power plants a new type of power plant, referred to as a “merchant plant,” is becoming more common. Merchant plants are built as IPPs, typically without a long-term power purchase agreement. The plants are built under the assumption that they will operate as a low-cost wholesale generator that will find markets for their power once they are in operation. Typically, merchant plants are developed by companies that have access to low-cost natural gas and are located at a strategic intersection of natural gas pipelines and transmission access. VALUE OF ELECTRICITY To understand the requirements for solar electric power, we must first understand the cost of power generated from competing conventional power technologies. Figure 1 shows the breakdown of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for power produced from three conventional power technologies: pulverized coal, advanced combined cycle, and advanced gas turbine. Capital cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, fuel cost, and heat rates are based on the Energy Information Administration’s 1998 Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 1997). The LCOEs are calculated using a 30-year cash-flow model adapted from Wiser and Kahn (1996). The key input assumptions are shown in Table 1. The LCOE is shown for baseload (85%) and intermediate load (30%) capacity factor plant operating profiles. The LCOEs are broken down into four components: capital, fixed O&M, variable O&M, and fuel. The capital component is the amortization of the capital cost of the plant spread over each kilowatt-hour produced. The fixed O&M component is the cost to have the plant staffed and available to operate. The variable O&M cost refers to the incremental cost to produce an additional kilowatt-hour of electricity. The baseload LCOEs are lower because the capital and fixed O&M costs can be amortized over more kilowatt-hours during the year. It is important to note that the LCOEs shown in Figure 1 are very sensitive to the financial and cost assumptions used. The electric power equipment supply industry is highly competitive, and significant variations in actual cost and performance are possible depending on where a project is developed, who develops it, who pays for it, and how it is paid for. Fuel cost, fuel escalation rates, and inflation rate assumptions also become very important, especially when comparing capital-intensive and expense-intensive technologies. One important assumption that went into the development of Figure 1 is that the coal plant is assumed to be developed by a utility with access to lower cost money and who can stretch the project life to 30 years. The combined cycle and gas turbine plants are assumed to be developed as higher risk merchant type plants and as a result are financed over 20 years and with higher cost capital. Figure 1 also shows how utilities traditionally viewed the cost of generation in terms of energy and capacity. The energy component includes the fuel and variable O&M costs. The capacity component includes the capital and fixed O&M components. Thus the capacity component represents the cost to build a plant and have it available to use. The energy component is the incremental cost of producing a kilowatt-hour of electricity. Utilities typically structure their power purchase contracts to value each of these components separately. From Figure 1 several conclusions can be drawn. If a new plant were built, the combined cycle would be the preferred baseload technology, and the gas turbine would be the preferred intermediate load technology. However, if the plants were already built, the coal plant would be the first plant dispatched to produce an additional kilowatt-hour of electricity because it has the lowest incremental energy cost. Higher inflation or fuel costs would tend to favor coal relative to the other technologies, and tend to favor the combined-cycle over the gas turbine. Overall the advanced combined-cycle represents the best mix for a wide range of operating load factors and insurance against increasing fuel prices and inflation. The intermediate load advanced combined-cycle plant will be used as the baseline target for future parabolic trough technology to compete with. This plant generates power for approximately 5.5¢/kWh at a 30% annual capacity factor. It is important to note that SEGS plants are fully dispatchable power plants. In areas such as the U.S. Southwest, where there is a high correlation between the power produced from solar energy and the peak system load, the plants qualify for both energy and capacity payments. The power produced from other renewable technologies that do not exhibit the same high correlation between generation and system load or are not fully dispatchable would be valued at less than 5.5¢/kWh (Table 2). Wind power, for example, would be valued at only 1.4¢/kWh – 2.3¢/kWh depending on whether it offset coal or combined cycle energy production. Based on this analysis, power from a trough plant should have a value of 3¢/kWh – 4¢/kWh greater than power from a wind plant. igure 1. Levelized Cost of Electricity for Conventional Technologies Copyright © 1999 by ASME LCOE 1998 $/kWhPDF Image | Parabolic Trough Solar Power for Competitive U.S. Markets
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