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Markets and applications, which were discussed in an earlier section, are of prime importance in determining the system and its goals. For a nascent technology such as PV, the markets will determine ultimate cost goals, but applications will determine the system and its components. U.S. cell and module production is estimated to have been about 120 MWp in 2002. For the last several years, the worldwide PV market has grown by more than 25% per year, and the 2002 world market has been reported as more than 550 MWp (Maycock, PV News, May 2003). Much of this present market consists of residential applications, but industrial installations are also growing in significance. The PV Subprogram of the DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program supports R&D by national laboratories, universities, and industry in pursuit of activities intended to enable further development of a strong private industry in PV. Thus, a primary objective is to work with the U.S. industry to enable it to achieve its goals, as presented in the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap. In it, the PV industry sees a time-phased entry into various markets with a progression from smaller high-value niche markets to larger utility-grid markets. The Roadmap projects a 2020 domestic PV industry that will provide up to 15% (about 3.2 GWp) of new U.S. peak electricity-generating capacity per year. Figure 4.1.1-2 depicts the evolution of these markets, which will be both supported and driven by simultaneous developments of the PV technologies as old technology paths provide cheaper and better systems—even as they are overtaken by newer technologies. Figure 4.1.1-2. Goal for U.S.-manufactured PV modules installed in U.S. domestic applications, for a U.S. market share that increases linearly from 30% to 50% from 2000 to 2020. Inset shows the evolution of the impact of various markets and technologies. (From the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap). 4.1.1.1 Technology Systems Status PV systems must be optimized for specific applications and meet certain performance, reliability, and cost criteria if they are to satisfy the consumer requirements and compete in the energy marketplace. A key to optimizing system performance is the availability of design and analytical computer models. Although several tools do exist to assist PV system designers, installers, and technicians, improved tools are needed for this young industry. Improved modeling and analytical tools will determine technology-development paths that will produce the greatest impacts in these existing and new markets. Systems-integration tools will aid designers and installers in better optimizing performance and in avoiding component mismatches that can lead to sub-optimal system reliability and performance. Collecting data from laboratory tests and fielded systems will provide developers and Solar Energy Technologies Program Multi-Year Technical Plan 44PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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