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Goals Leaders of the DOE PV Subprogram have developed goals for 2020 that they believe are appropriate for achieving national significance and are consistent with industry needs (as reported in the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap). These goals are to: • Reduce the LEC for PV to $0.06/kWh. • For crystalline-silicon modules, increase the conversion efficiency to 20% and reduce producer module-manufacturing costs to less than for $67/m2, thus enabling PV systems with a 30-year lifetime at an installed cost of $2.00/W. • For thin-film modules, increase the conversion efficiency to 15% and reduce producer module- manufacturing costs to less than $50/m2, thus enabling PV systems with a 30-year lifetime at an installed cost of $2.00/W. The Solar Program Strategic Performance Goal in PV (from the FY 2004 Congressional Budget) is “...by 2006, reduce the cost of grid-tied (battery-free) photovoltaic systems to the end user (including operation and maintenance costs) to $4.50/W, from a median value of $6.25/W in 2000, which requires a reduction in the cost of the PV module itself to $1.75/W, compared with a cost of $2.50/W in 2000, and would reduce the average cost of electricity generated by PV systems from a current $0.25/kWh to $0.18/kWh;....” FY 2005 technical targets are to verify U.S.-made commercial- production PV modules with conversion efficiencies of 14% for crystalline silicon modules and 11% for thin-film modules. The Multi-Year PV objectives and targets in the following sections are calculated to be consistent with the goals listed above. They will be refined using the systems-driven approach to incorporate and guide future progress in an iterative manner. Objectives Objectives of specific PV technologies depend on timing and the application. For this Multi-Year Technical Plan, the objectives are presented consistent with the goals listed above and in the time- frame context of present status (2003), fifth year of the plan (2007), and long-term (2020). Three major applications are addressed to demonstrate the range of applications. We have selected specific systems with existing data to establish the 2003 baseline technology characterization. The baseline utility system incorporates thin-film modules. The baseline residential systems use crystalline-silicon modules. However, because different material systems provide alternate pathways to achieving PV goals, trade-offs between performance and cost characteristics exist for each of the examples. Present time-phased objectives follow for: (1) a 2-MW utility-scale application, (2) a 2.7-kW grid- connected residential application, and (3) a 2.7-kW grid-connected application with storage. Utility-Scale Applications The 2003 baseline technology for utility-scale applications is a 2-MW facility: • Direct module-manufacturing costs are $3/W. • Inverter costs are $0.60/W. • System prices are $5.30/W. • LEC is $0.24/kWhr and depends on financing and solar resource assumptions. It is the cost to the utility to provide electricity and does not include land, site preparation, or marketing costs. By 2007, the objectives are to: • Reduce direct module-manufacturing costs to $1.65/W. • Reduce inverter costs to $0.40/W. • Achieve 12% module conversion efficiency and resolve device-level issues necessary for 20- year lifetime for thin-film modules. Solar Energy Technologies Program Multi-Year Technical Plan 48PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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