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• Reduce system prices to $3.60/W. • Obtain LEC of $0.15/kWh with assumptions as in 2003. By 2020, the application size for utilities will probably be larger than 20 MW. The objectives are to: • Reduce direct module-manufacturing costs to the range of $0.33 to $0.50/W. • Reduce inverter costs to $0.25/W. • Achieve 15% conversion efficiency and 30 -year lifetimes for commercial modules with less than 1% per year degradation. • Reduce system prices to the range of $1.50 to $2.00/W. • Obtain LEC of $0.06/kWh. Grid-Connected Residential Applications Because BOS requirements are expected to be more costly in the residential applications, the resulting system and LEC are somewhat higher than for utility applications. However, in this application, the target is the retail cost of electricity as opposed to the wholesale cost for utility applications. The baseline described here is for crystalline silicon, but various PV approaches may reach the later-year targets. The 2003 baseline technology for grid-connected residential applications is a 2- to 3-kW residence. • Direct module-manufacturing costs are $3.00/W. • Inverter costs are $1.10/W. • System prices to the consumer are $6.25 to $9.45/W and are highly dependent on installation costs and available incentives from local and state entities. • LEC is $0.25 to $0.40/kWh and depends on financing and solar resource assumptions. For 2007, grid-connected residential application objectives are to: • Reduce direct module-manufacturing costs to $1.65/W. • Reduce inverter costs to $0.50/W. • Achieve module efficiencies of 15% with a 20-year lifetime. • Reduce system prices to $5.25/W. • Obtain LEC of $0.22/kWh. By 2020: • Reduce direct module-manufacturing costs to the range of $0.33 to $0.50/W • Reduce inverter costs to $0.30/W. • Achieve module efficiencies in the range of 15% to 20% with a 30-year lifetime. • Reduce system prices to the range of $2.30 to $2.80/W. • Obtain LEC in the range of $0.08 to $0.10/kWh. Grid-Connected Application with Storage The objectives for this application are similar to those for the grid-connected residential without storage. The added storage is intended for backup in the case of power outages, but is not adequate for continuous off-grid operation. This market for grid-connected applications with storage has been growing and is likely to become a standard application, so we include it here as a third example. The differences from the previous example may be summarized by noting the changes in the system costs and LEC. The baseline for this 2- to 3-kW PV system with storage in 2003 has a system cost of $11.30/W and LEC of $0.59/kWh. For 2007, the costs are $7.30/W and $0.38/kWh, respectively. For 2020, the system cost ranges from $3.90 to $4.40/W and LEC from $0.25 to $0.27/kWh. Solar Energy Technologies Program Multi-Year Technical Plan 49PDF Image | Solar Energy Technologies Program
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